The world’s energy system is changing faster than ever. BP’s Energy Outlook 2025 shows that the old balance is fading, and the future depends on how fast and deep the energy transition will be. The report outlines two key scenarios — Current Trajectory and Below 2°. The first assumes today’s policies and trends continue. The second shows what the future may look like if the world takes strict measures to keep global warming “below 2°C.” The key message is clear: if emissions stay at current levels, the carbon budget consistent with the 2°C pathway will be used up by the early 2040s.
By 2050, global GDP will nearly double. Average annual growth will slow to 2.5%, compared to 3.4% over the past 25 years, mainly because of slower population growth. But the growth is uneven: developing economies will account for 80% of global GDP gains, led by Asia, India, Africa, and Latin America. China, the biggest driver of demand in recent decades, will see its energy use peak and then decline by 2050.
Between 2019 and 2024, global primary energy demand grew by about 1% per year. All of this increase came from developing economies. In Current Trajectory, primary energy demand in developing countries (excluding China) rises nearly 50% by 2050, with Asia up 70%, Africa 60%, and Latin America 30%. In advanced economies, demand falls by 15% in Current Trajectory and by 40% in Below 2°. In China, demand falls by more than 10% in the baseline and by one-third in the accelerated transition.
From 2019 to 2024, energy efficiency improved by only 1.5% a year — the weakest pace in a decade. In Current Trajectory, efficiency improves by 2% annually, while in Below 2° it reaches 3.3%. This difference reshapes the entire balance: in the baseline, primary energy grows by 0.3% a year to 2050, but in Below 2° it declines by 1% annually.
In Current Trajectory, emissions stay near today’s levels until the 2030s, then fall just 25% by 2050. In Below 2°, they fall by 90%. That means near-total decarbonization. BP estimates that the gap between the two scenarios in 2050 exceeds 30 gigatons of CO₂equivalent.
Developing countries drive the difference: they account for 80% of the emissions gap. China’s contribution is about 30% of the difference by 2035 and 20% by 2050. By sector, power (40%) and industry (35%) dominate reductions. In the power sector, faster renewables deployment raises their share to 75% in developing economies by 2050 in Below 2°, compared to 50% in the baseline.
Oil demand remains large but declines over time.
• In Current Trajectory, demand grows into the 2030s, peaks at 100 mb/d in 2035, and then falls to 85 mb/d by 2050.
• In Below 2°, demand drops faster: just above 85 mb/d by 2035 and under 35 mb/d by 2050.
Transport drives the fall. In 2023, road transport used around 40 mb/d. By 2050, this drops to 25 mb/d in Current Trajectory and below 10 mb/d in Below 2°.
Electric vehicles reshape the outlook:
• 2023: 40 million EVs worldwide;
• 2035: 480 million EVs in Current Trajectory, 560 million in Below 2°;
• 2050: 1.4 billion EVs in Current Trajectory, 2.1 billion in Below 2°.
Petrochemicals remain resilient. In Current Trajectory, oil use in petrochemicals rises from 14 mb/d in 2023 to 20 mb/d in 2035and 23 mb/d in 2050. In Below 2°, growth is capped and then declines after 2035. By mid-century, petrochemicals could account for 45% of global oil demand.
Gas has a mixed future.
• In Current Trajectory, global gas use rises 20% by 2035 to 4.7 trillion cubic meters, before stabilizing.
• In Below 2°, demand plunges 55% by 2050.
LNG grows strongly. New projects will expand exports by 50% by 2035. The US and Middle East provide two-thirds of the increase.
Coal is the clear loser. Its share shrinks sharply as renewables expand. China, the largest user, sees the biggest drop.
Renewables are the big winner.
• From 2019 to 2024, generation doubled.
• By 2050, output grows 2.5 times in Current Trajectory.
• In Below 2°, it grows 3.5 times.
By mid-century, renewables and gas each make up 25% of the global energy mix in Current Trajectory. In Below 2°, renewables dominate, pushing out oil and coal.
In 2023, electricity accounted for 20% of final energy use.
• By 2050: over 35% in Current Trajectory, over 50% in Below 2°.
• Power demand nearly doubles.
• Fossil fuels’ share in final use drops to 50% in Current Trajectory and 25% in Below 2°.
AI is a new force. In the US, data centers may drive up to 40% of power demand growth in the next decade. But AI can also cut energy use: in industry, transport, and buildings, algorithms boost efficiency. OECD estimates AI could raise productivity by 1.2% annually, which might increase global energy use by 15% by 2035 if efficiency gains don’t keep up.
Wars and sanctions push nations to focus on domestic supply. “Electro-states” are emerging, relying on local low-carbon power. Europe and the US are already in the substitution phase, where renewables growth outpaces demand growth, squeezing out fossil fuels. China will reach this stage around 2030, Brazil in the 2040s. By 2050, more than 60% of the world’s energy will come from countries already in this phase.
BP Energy Outlook 2025 makes it clear: without radical change, emissions fall only 25%. Only in Below 2° do CO₂ levels approach full reduction. Achieving that requires faster renewables growth, mass electrification of transport and industry, new technologies, and geopolitical adaptation.
Lina Yegil kizi, expert of the portal EconomyKZ.org
