Electric vehicles (EVs) have become an important part of the CO2 emissions reduction strategy. In 2023 the share of EVs in global passenger car sales reached 16%. This significantly exceeded the previously 10% forecasted in the 2021 report. China led this growth with EVs accounting for 35% of the market share. This was made possible by active government support, subsidies, and the development of charging infrastructure.
By 2030 the share of EVs in global sales is expected to exceed 50%. In China this figure could reach 80%. This is due to high demand and the rapid development of battery production technologies. However, growth rates in Europe and the U.S. are more moderate. Forecasts have been adjusted due to delays in the implementation of charging infrastructure.
One of the main barriers to the transport electrification of is the lack of charging stations. This is especially relevant for the U.S. and Europe. In contrast, China is rapidly developing its network of charging stations. This supports the high demand for electric vehicles.
According to the Goldman Sachs report, significant expansion of charging infrastructure is needed to achieve sustainable EV growth. Investments in this area must increase by 40% compared to the 2021 forecasts. By 2030 more than 12 million charging stations are expected to be installed worldwide.
The spread of EVs directly impacts oil demand. In 2023 reduced oil needs due to EV growth amounted to 1 million barrels per day. This is 0.5 million barrels more than previously expected. Goldman Sachs projects that by 2030 this figure will increase to 4 million barrels per day.
This puts oil companies at a crossroads. They need to adapt their business models and invest in renewable energy development. An alternative could be the development of synthetic fuel production technologies.
Hybrid vehicles play an intermediate role in the electrification process.
Their adoption allows for CO2 emission reductions without drastic changes to infrastructure. In 2023 hybrid vehicle sales also increased, particularly in countries with developing charging networks. Their share is expected to decline as fully electric models become more accessible.
Producing electric vehicles comes with several challenges. The main issue is ensuring a sufficient supply of lithium and other rare earth metals. In 2023 lithium prices increased by 70% compared to 2022. This created difficulties for manufacturers and slowed down the release of new models.
Goldman Sachs expects that some of these issues will be partially resolved through the introduction of recycling technologies and secondary lithium extraction. By 2030 lithium prices are projected to decrease by 20%. However, battery production still requires significant investments in research and development.
Electrification of transport is a key factor in reducing CO2 emissions. In 2023 EVs contributed to a 2% reduction in global emissions. This exceeded the previously forecasted 1.5% from the 2021 data. The main contribution came from China, which significantly reduced emissions in the transport sector.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2050 EVs will help reduce CO2 emissions by 20%. This will be possible with the accelerated implementation of new technologies and increased investments in infrastructure.
Electrification of transport continues to develop. The main efforts are aimed at expanding the charging network, increasing production, and reducing battery prices. By 2070 the transport sector is expected to be almost fully electrified. This will require $2.7 trillion in investments by 2050.
However, challenges remain. High costs, resource shortages, and insufficient infrastructure are the main barriers. Without active development of the EV sector, achieving carbon neutrality will be impossible.
Prepared by: Lina Yegil kizi, expert of the Economy.kz portal
