Uzbekistan’s energy sector remains one of the most state-controlled areas of the economy. Nearly all electricity generation and distribution companies are state-owned and heavily subsidized. Yet, the country’s power generation is already falling short of growing demand from both the population and industry.
In 2023, Uzbekistan produced 74.3 billion kWh of electricity with an installed capacity of 17.9 GW, of which 85% came from thermal power plants (TPPs). Only 15% came from renewable sources, including hydroelectric power.
Looking ahead, electricity consumption is expected to double by 2030, reaching 120.8 billion kWh. The country is already facing a 14% power shortage, worsened by outdated TPP equipment with low efficiency (25-35%) and overburdened transmission systems.
To ensure energy security and meet future needs, Uzbekistan must modernize its power sector, diversify energy sources, develop a balanced tariff system, and attract major investments. In this context, nuclear energy is back on the table as a viable long-term solution.
A Nuclear Option: From Discussion to Strategy
Ideas about building a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan date back to the 1980s. But political and geopolitical factors long stalled any serious progress.
A breakthrough came in 2019, when the government approved a $11 billion project under decree No. PP-4165 to build a 2.4 GW nuclear power plant (two 1.2 GW reactors). The plan initially involved a partnership with Russia’s Rosatom.
However, the chosen site—Lake Tuzkan—proved problematic due to lack of fresh water, a critical requirement for large-scale NPPs.
By the end of 2023, Uzbekistan remained committed to exploring nuclear energy, but had yet to finalize its technology choice, international partner, or project model.
How Nuclear Power Can Help Uzbekistan
If planned and managed properly, nuclear energy could help Uzbekistan address several core challenges:
- Closing the power gap. Unlike solar or hydro, nuclear plants provide consistent, weather-independent electricity year-round.
- Reducing natural gas use. Current TPPs consume large volumes of gas, limiting export potential. Nuclear energy would free up gas for export or industrial use.
- Strengthening regional resilience. Small modular reactors (SMRs) can decentralize power supply, easing pressure on overloaded transmission networks.
- Boosting investment and innovation. A nuclear project could attract foreign financing, create skilled jobs, and build scientific capacity—especially with clear regulation and workforce development.
Key Obstacles and Risks
1. Geopolitical balancing act. Uzbekistan is in talks with multiple partners—Russia, China, the UK, France—each offering different technologies and terms.
2. Financing. Large-scale NPPs require either state guarantees or international financial support. Given the strained finances of national energy companies like Uzneftegaz and TPPs, only broad international partnerships are viable.
3. Water and infrastructure. Conventional nuclear plants need large amounts of cooling water. Even SMRs require solid infrastructure and logistics planning.
4. Tariff reform. Electricity in Uzbekistan costs just $0.02 per kWh, among the world’s lowest. These prices don’t cover capital costs, making nuclear development impossible without major tariff adjustments.
Recommendations and Strategic Steps
1. Adopt a clear national nuclear roadmap. Decide on the preferred technology, development partner, and construction site. Consider a phased approach—from full-scale NPPs to modular designs.
2. Focus on modular reactors (SMRs):
o Typical construction period: 4 years, including 500 days of assembly;
o A 470 MW SMR can power a district or small city;
o Requires less water and integrates more easily into regional grids.
3. Establish an independent nuclear regulator. A transparent, accountable, and safety-focused oversight body will help build public and investor trust.
4. Launch workforce and institutional development programs. Create nuclear engineering centers and partner with universities in Russia, China, France, and the UK to train local specialists.
5. Ensure public awareness and engagement. Run nationwide information campaigns on the environmental and economic benefits of nuclear energy.
6. Rebuild the Unified Energy Ring. A legacy Soviet-era grid linking Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, the ring could balance seasonal shortages:
o Summer: Excess hydroelectric power from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan;
o Winter: Reliable baseload from Uzbekistan’s TPPs and future NPPs;
o A regional power market would attract infrastructure investment, improve exports, and foster coordinated energy policy across Central Asia.
For Uzbekistan, nuclear energy is no longer just a long-term ambition—it’s a current necessity. But success will require more than technology. It demands clear strategy, strong institutions, reliable financing, and regional cooperation. With the right plan, Uzbekistan could become a nuclear energy leader in Central Asia—and ensure a stable, sustainable energy future.
Yerlan Karimov, independent expert, specifically for www.economyKZ.org
