This article provides an analysis of the key indicators of domestic trade in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period of January-July, 2024.
All data is based on reports from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The article examines the dynamics of retail and wholesale trade, structural changes in the trade sector, as well as regional characteristics of the domestic market.
Key Indicators
In the first seven months of 2024, the physical volume index (PVI) for the “Trade” sector was 104.9% compared to the same period in 2023. This indicates a slowdown in growth, as the PVI for the previous year was 109.7%. This result demands deeper analysis of the reasons for the slowdown and their possible consequences.
The PVI for wholesale trade volume during this period was 104.4%, which is lower than the corresponding period in 2023 (110%). Retail trade shows a similar decline: 105.9% in 2024 compared to 108.8% in 2023. These figures highlight a deceleration in growth in both wholesale and retail trade segments.
Trade Structure
Wholesale trade continues to hold a leading position in the overall structure of domestic trade, accounting for 67.4% of the total volume. In the structure of wholesale turnover non-food products and industrial-technical goods dominate, making up 79.7% of the total volume.
Retail trade, which accounts for 32.2% of the total volume, also shows positive dynamics. The share of food products in total retail trade is 30.8%, while non-food products account for 69.2%. Notably, the volume of food product sales increased by 8.4%, significantly higher than the growth in non-food products (4.8%). These data suggest a shift in consumer preferences towards food products, which may indicate an increase in household incomes.
Regional Structure
The highest volume of wholesale trade remains concentrated in Almaty (36.8% of the total volume), Astana (15.8%), and Atyrau region (15.6%). In retail trade, Almaty (32%), Astana (12.9%), and Karaganda region (7.4%) lead the way.
These figures confirm the ongoing concentration of trade activity in large cities and industrially developed regions. However, despite the overall growth in trade, some regions remain on the periphery, indicating the need for additional measures to stimulate trade in less developed areas.
Despite the continued growth in domestic trade volumes in Kazakhstan, the slowing growth rate raises certain concerns. The main reasons may include macroeconomic factors such as inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and external economic conditions. A deeper analysis of these factors is necessary to forecast future trends in the trade sector.
