Experts predict that by 2028 Kazakhstan along with other Central Asian countries will enter a phase of chronic water resource deficiency.
According to the World Bank, by 2040 the level of water stress in Kazakhstan could exceed 80%. This shortage will affect all sectors of the economy, primarily agriculture, industry, and municipal services.
It is known that 65% of water consumption is attributed to agriculture in the country. However, due to the unsatisfactory condition of irrigation channels, losses during water transportation exceed 50%. According to the Concept for the Development of the Water Resource Management System of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2024 – 2030, in 2022 the country’s losses during water transportation amounted to 3.4 billion cubic meters.
Meanwhile, according to data from Worldometers, Kazakhstan ranks among the countries with high levels of water consumption, with daily water consumption per capita amounting to nearly 3400 liters.
Main issues in water supply are linked to urbanization and infrastructure wear:
Urbanization
Kazakhstan is experiencing an increase in urbanization levels, which boosts the demand for water resources. Officially, the urbanization level in Kazakhstan is at 62%, but statistics do not account for the burden on cities from adjacent settlements. Thus, the real level of urbanization in Kazakhstan could be around 75%. For instance, the economic development of the city of Almaty has led to a rapid increase in its population and area, more than doubling since 2014. Over the past 20 years, the population of the southern capital has almost doubled to 2.2 million people.
A similar situation is observed in the capital, where water supply disruptions were experienced in the summer of 2023. Moreover, with the further increase in Astana’s population to 2 million people, there is a very serious risk of drinking water shortage. Even the successful implementation of the project to redirect the K. Satpayev canal into the Ishim river will not solve the water deficit issue in the capital.
The current situation in the city of Aktau is also a clear example of the city’s infrastructural problems, which fails to keep up with the population growth.
Infrastructure wear
The population and the area of large cities are growing rapidly, but this process is not accompanied by the corresponding development of engineering infrastructure. At present, the total length of water pipelines in the republic is almost 98,000 km, having increased by 12,300 km since 2019. However, in some regions of the country, the level of wear on water pipelines is significantly higher than the republican average (within 51 – 58%). The highest wear on water pipelines is observed in the city of Almaty, Almaty, East Kazakhstan, Akmola, Ulytau, Abai, and Karaganda regions.
Measures needed to avoid the crisis:
To address the water shortage problem, Kazakhstan needs to:
- Explore and utilize underground water sources. In Kazakhstan, underground water resources amount to more than 64 cubic km per year, of which extractable reserves are 16 cubic km. However, the resources of underground waters in Kazakhstan are not yet fully studied; currently, only 25% of underground water sources are explored and included in the state balance as operational reserves, while the remaining 75% require further study.
- Implement tools for monitoring the water balance through the installation of devices, automation, and digitization. Full automation of technical processes through the installation of meters and pressure sensors will provide a clearer picture of the water balance and water consumption.
- Use more durable pipes. For example, double-layer pressure pipes made of PE100 polyethylene can be used. It is important to initiate work on the localization of pipe and equipment production for water supply.
- Introduce local water purification and drinking water disinfection systems. For example, following the experience of the city of Oslo (Norway), collect rainwater in special fountains, which are purified and used for watering green plantations. It is also proposed to place public baths and car washes in the same territorial zone in cities to reuse the water from public baths for car washing.
Author: Erlan Karimov
Economist
