EC[ON]OMY

Abai region’s trade surge: key insights from H1 2026

Total trade

Abai Region’s total trade rose to $2.03 billion in H1 2026, up 25.2%. The real story is not exports, which increased 10.4% to $1.37 billion, but imports: they surged 73.8% to $657.8 million, the fastest growth among all regions reviewed.

China has a near-monopoly on the region’s trade, with turnover of $1.33 billion, up 21.0%. Russia is gaining pace, rising 50.3% to $498.7 million, while South Korea posted explosive growth from a very low base, up 2,309.5%.

Exports

Exports reached $1.37 billion in H1 2026, up 10.4%. Food products accounted for 15.6%, or $214.9 million, after growing 62.5%, far faster than exports overall.

Copper ore, all of it shipped to China, accounts for the largest share of exports. It is followed by sunflower oil and molybdenum ore, both also sold predominantly to China.

Copper ore exports to China are a recent development for Abai, which was carved out of East Kazakhstan Region in 2022. Shipments leapt from $24.4 million in 2022 to $2.16 billion in 2024 and remained at $1.9 billion in 2025. This was a sharp structural shift that has settled at a new level, not a one-off spike.

⁠Imports

Imports jumped 73.8% to $657.8 million in H1 2026. Food products accounted for just 8.0%.

Unwrought gold, sourced entirely from Russia, was the largest import item at $234.6 million.

Gold imports from Russia show a clear multi-year rise: from $320.6 million in 2022 to $868.8 million in 2024 and $1.07 billion in 2025. The sustained acceleration and complete reliance on a single supplier suggest a toll-refining arrangement whose volumes continue to grow.

Abai Region recorded a sharp rise in imports in H1 2026, up 73.8%, driven by rapidly expanding shipments of Russian gold for refining. On the export side, copper ore sales to China are no longer a new development but a higher level of trade that has held since 2024.

National Bureau of Economic Research specifically for EconomyKZ.org

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