On paper, incomes in Kazakhstan are growing. In everyday life, it feels different. In the fourth quarter of 2025, average income per person reached 254,446 tenge per month. That is 9.8 percent higher than a year earlier. But prices have risen faster. Real income dropped to 97.7 percent compared to last year.
The numbers are going up. The feeling is not. This gap is no longer temporary. It is becoming the new normal. Over the past few years, incomes have been rising steadily. Almost every quarter shows growth. Since 2022, average income has moved from around 150,000 tenge to above 250,000. The trend looks smooth. No sharp declines. But there is another line behind this story. Real income. And it moves differently. It goes up and down. In 2025, it falls below 100 percent. This means income growth is not keeping up with prices. At the household level, it is simple. Salaries are higher. Expenses are rising faster.
The main reason is clear. Inflation. But what matters is its structure. Everyday goods and services are getting more expensive faster than anything else. That is where most people spend their money. This is why people feel poorer even when they earn more.
The economy says incomes are rising. People see prices rising. There is another issue inside the numbers. Average income does not reflect real life very well. It is calculated at a broad level. It includes wages, income from self-employment, social payments, and other sources. It also includes estimated hidden income.
This makes the number more complete. But less precise for each person. The average grows faster than what most people actually earn. This becomes very clear when you look at regions. The gap between regions is more than three times. In Almaty, average income is above 410,000 tenge per person. In Astana, around 371,000. In Turkestan region, about 134,000.
This is not just a difference in numbers. These are different economic realities. Big cities concentrate higher-paying jobs. Regions with weaker economies stay behind. Even within regions, the picture is uneven. Akmola region shows income growth of 17.3 percent. Zhetisu is close to 17 percent. That is above the national average. But it does not mean people are better off. If prices rise faster, the gain disappears.
There are also negative cases. Atyrau region shows a drop in income. Nominal income fell to 89.5 percent. Real income dropped to 78.8 percent. This is one of the sharpest declines in the country. These differences show there is no single trend across the country.
Even the richest cities are not immune. In Almaty, despite the highest income levels, real income fell to 96.6 percent. Astana shows a similar pattern. This means buying power is falling even in the most developed areas. Shymkent faces a tougher situation. Income is below average. Real income is also below 100 percent. This creates double pressure.
In this environment, income growth no longer builds confidence. It becomes a way to keep up. Wages are trying to catch inflation. But they are not getting ahead.
This changes how people behave. Households spend faster. Saving becomes harder. People focus on daily needs instead of long-term plans. Businesses react the same way. Companies build future costs into current prices. This pushes inflation further.
It becomes a loop. There is also the way income is measured. The numbers are calculated before taxes and mandatory payments. This means real disposable income is lower. The gap between statistics and reality gets wider.
Self-employment income is growing. But it is less stable. It depends more on economic conditions. Social payments help. But they do not fully offset rising prices. This makes the income structure more fragile.
Regional inequality remains strong. The gap between the highest and lowest incomes is more than three times. And it is not shrinking. This limits domestic demand. Regions with lower incomes cannot support strong consumption. This affects businesses. Economic activity slows down.
In this context, income growth stops being a clear signal. It shows movement. But not quality. If current trends continue, nominal incomes will keep rising. That is likely. But real incomes will stay under pressure. This creates a new economic reality.
Income growth no longer feels like progress. People cut back on spending. Big purchases are delayed. Businesses face weak demand. On paper, the economy looks stable. In real life, it feels different. That gap is the key issue. As long as it keeps growing, positive numbers will be met with doubt.
Lina Yegil kizi, expert of the EconomyKZ.org portal
