The output multiplier measures how much total economic output increases when final demand for a particular industry’s products rises by one unit (typically one tenge).
For Kazakhstan, this indicator is particularly important. Since independence, the country has pursued economic diversification with a strong focus on expanding manufacturing. Understanding which sectors generate the largest spillover effects is therefore critical for shaping industrial policy.
Multiplier estimates are based on Kazakhstan’s input-output tables, which cover more than 60 categories of goods and services. The data reveal that Kazakhstan’s multipliers are, on average, lower than those found in advanced economies. The main reason is the country’s heavy reliance on imported intermediate inputs.
This is especially evident in the extractive industries. Oil, gas and metals remain the primary engines of Kazakhstan’s economic growth through export revenues and their direct contribution to GDP. Yet their indirect impact is far more limited. Mining companies import a substantial share of their equipment, technology and services, meaning that much of the value created fails to spread across domestic industries. As a result, despite the mining sector’s dominant role throughout Kazakhstan’s 35 years of independence, its broader contribution to the rest of the economy through inter-industry linkages has been smaller than many would expect.
As the economy evolves, however, other industries may emerge as stronger drivers of nationwide economic growth.
Excluding mining and services, the data highlight the five product groups that currently generate the largest multiplier effects across Kazakhstan’s economy.
Top economic multipliers (excluding mining and services)
Product Contribution to the economy (GDP multiplier excluding net taxes, per additional KZT 1 of final demand)
Fish and other fisheries products; aquaculture; fisheries support services 0.96
Forestry products, logging and related services 0.94
Agricultural products, hunting and related services 0.91
Food products and beverages 0.79
Paper and paper products 0.64
Note: The coefficients show how much Kazakhstan’s economy (gross value added, or GDP excluding net taxes) expands when final demand for a product increases by one additional tenge. They represent marginal multipliers measured on a consistent one-tenge basis.
At first glance, the pattern appears counterintuitive. Multipliers decline as the level of processing increases. Fisheries and forestry generate multipliers above 0.9, food manufacturing stands at 0.79, while paper production falls to just 0.64.
A likely explanation lies in production costs. Primary industries such as fisheries, forestry and agriculture rely largely on domestic labor and natural resources. More technologically advanced industries, including paper manufacturing, depend much more heavily on imported raw materials, chemicals and equipment. As a result, a larger share of the value created leaks abroad instead of circulating within Kazakhstan’s economy.
Put simply, a technologically sophisticated industry does not automatically generate greater economic benefits if much of its production relies on imported inputs.
These findings suggest that industrial policy should move beyond traditional metrics such as production volumes, export potential and the degree of processing. When allocating subsidies, tax incentives and infrastructure support, policymakers should also consider each industry’s multiplier effect and its ability to stimulate growth across the wider economy.
As Kazakhstan pursues its goal of doubling GDP by 2029, multiplier analysis can become a practical tool for prioritizing public spending and directing investment toward industries that deliver the greatest economy-wide returns.
