According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026. The latest figures suggest the country is gradually overcoming the sharp decline in oil production that weighed on growth earlier this year. Most non-resource sectors are now posting robust gains, although the mining industry continues to hold back the economy from reaching its full growth potential.
▪️Growth breakdown:
▫️Goods-producing industries expanded by 5.1% in January-June, contributing 1.8 percentage points, or roughly 44% of total GDP growth.
▫️Services grew by 3.5%, adding another 2.0 percentage points, nearly half of overall economic growth.
▫️Net taxes on products and imports accounted for the remaining 0.2 percentage points.
▪️Manufacturing remained the economy’s biggest growth engine. Output rose 9.8%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth. Construction expanded by 15.2%, adding 0.8 percentage points, while trade contributed 0.9 percentage points and transportation and warehousing added 0.5 percentage points. Combined, these non-resource sectors generated around 4.6 percentage points of economic growth.
▪️The mining sector, however, continued to weigh on overall performance. Output remained 4.0% below last year’s level in the first half of 2026, reducing GDP growth by roughly 0.5 percentage points. In other words, without the drag from extractive industries, Kazakhstan’s economic growth would have been noticeably stronger than the reported 4.1%.
Detailed mining data for the first six months have yet to be released, but figures for January-May already point to the source of the weakness. Total mining output declined 5.2%, with crude oil and natural gas extraction accounting for nearly all of the downturn. Oil and gas reduced sectoral growth by 7.4 percentage points, including 7.2 percentage points from crude oil alone. Coal mining, metal ore extraction and other mining activities continued to expand, partially offsetting the decline in oil production.
The scale of the downturn is also gradually easing. The mining production index improved from 80.1 in January to 94.8 by the end of May, while the sector’s year-on-year decline narrowed to 4.0% in the first half. That suggests the economy is not yet receiving a fresh boost from oil production, but it is steadily losing less growth to the sector than it did earlier this year.
▪️The short-term economic indicator tells a similar story, rising 5.1% in January-June. Core sectors of the economy are expanding faster than headline GDP, pointing to broad-based growth across industries beyond oil extraction.
If the mining sector continues to close the gap with last year’s production levels, its negative contribution to GDP should gradually disappear. With manufacturing, construction, trade and services maintaining their current momentum, overall economic growth could accelerate further. For now, however, the 4.1% growth recorded in the first half reflects two parallel trends: strong expansion across the non-resource economy and the continued recovery from the oil production shock at the start of the year.
This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.
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