After strengthening through the spring, the tenge entered a period of correction in June. The average USD/KZT exchange rate rose to 487.9 tenge per US dollar, compared with 469.2 in both April and May. The move confirms that seasonal demand for foreign currency and external market conditions continue to play an important role in shaping exchange rate dynamics.
At the same time, June’s performance did not push the market into a more bearish scenario. Instead, the actual exchange rate came remarkably close to the previous baseline forecast. That provides a stronger foundation for updating projections using newly observed data and reassessing expectations for July through December 2026.
June forecast accuracy
The previous baseline forecast projected an average June exchange rate of 488.5 tenge per US dollar. The actual monthly average came in at 487.9, resulting in only a marginal forecasting error. Compared with the optimistic scenario of 471.0, the actual outcome was 16.9 tenge, or 3.6%, weaker. It also remained 18.1 tenge, or 3.6%, stronger than the pessimistic scenario of 506.0.
In other words, June validated the baseline trajectory. This matters because the updated forecast is no longer based on assumptions made at the beginning of June, but on the actual monthly average that has already been observed. Updated outlook: baseline forecast points to 476.7 per US dollar in July
As of 8 July, the estimated average exchange rate for the month stands at 474.2 tenge per US dollar. The updated scenarios for July are:
- Optimistic: 459.2 tenge per US dollar
- Baseline: 476.7 tenge per US dollar
- Pessimistic: 494.1 tenge per US dollar
The baseline scenario then projects:
- August: 484.7
- September: 486.6
- October: 489.7 tenge per US dollar
Following June’s correction, the forecast no longer points to a sustained move above 500 tenge per US dollar during the summer. A more likely path is a partial recovery of the tenge in July, followed by a gradual weakening through the second half of summer and into autumn.
Why the forecast has become more optimistic
A month ago, the baseline scenario projected 508.2 tenge for July and 516.5 for August. Those estimates have now been revised down to 476.7 and 484.7, respectively.
This does not mean the previous forecast was wrong. A forecast is not a fixed promise of where the exchange rate will be. It is the most probable estimate based on the information available at a given point in time. The June projection was produced before the month’s actual results became available and therefore covered a longer forecasting horizon. The updated model now incorporates newly observed data while working with a shorter horizon.
Importantly, June’s outcome was almost identical to the baseline forecast. That suggests the model captured short-term dynamics accurately. With the latest data incorporated, it recalibrates short-term momentum, the probability of a corrective move and the pace of seasonal depreciation.
Monetary policy and seasonal factors
On 5 June 2026, the National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate from 18.0% to 17.0%. While this reduced the relative yield on tenge-denominated assets, interest rates remain high enough to continue supporting investor demand for Kazakhstan’s financial market.
A lower policy rate does not automatically trigger capital outflows. Kazakhstan’s yield premium has narrowed, but tenge assets remain attractive for investors seeking interest rate differentials and compensation for risk.
Seasonal demand for foreign currency also remains a factor. Summer holidays typically increase outbound travel, boosting demand for US dollars, euros and other foreign currencies. Import-related and corporate payments add further pressure. As a result, the updated forecast does not anticipate a sharp appreciation of the tenge. Instead, it points to a milder depreciation than previously expected.
Outlook through the end of 2026
Under the baseline scenario, USD/KZT is expected to remain broadly within the 485-490 tenge per US dollar range after the July correction:
- August: 484.7
- September: 486.6
- October: 489.7
- November: 484.9
- December: 484.9 tenge per US dollar
Overall, the revised trajectory is considerably more supportive for the tenge than earlier projections suggested.
That said, risks remain. The two key external variables continue to be Brent crude prices and the global strength of the US dollar. A simultaneous decline in oil prices and appreciation of the dollar could once again push USD/KZT toward the upper end of the projected range.
Forecast methodology: stationary time series and a four-model consensus
The forecast is based on a methodology designed to ensure statistical consistency and comparability over time.
- Monthly average USD/KZT data from January 2011through the present were used.
- All models were estimated using stationary time series, meaning the data were transformed so that their key statistical properties remain stable over time. This is essential for many econometric techniques, as non-stationary data can produce spurious relationships and unstable estimates.
- The final projection represents a consensus forecast derived from four independent econometric models. Consensus forecasting generally improves robustness because different model classes respond differently to outliers, structural breaks and short-term shocks. Combining them reduces the risk that the final forecast is driven by a single model’s weaknesses.
Historical forecast accuracy
For 2026, the model has produced:
- Average relative forecasting error: 0.5%
- Average absolute forecasting error: 2.2 tenge
For June 2026, the deviation from the baseline forecast was:
- Relative error: 0.1%
- Absolute error: 0.6 tenge
June confirmed the baseline forecast, with the average exchange rate of 487.9 tenge per US dollar coming almost exactly in line with the projected 488.5. This allowed the model to be recalibrated using newly observed data, resulting in a more optimistic outlook for July through December.
The revised forecast does not anticipate a return to the spring levels of around 469 tenge per US dollar as the central scenario. At the same time, it no longer supports the earlier expectation of a rapid move above 500 during the summer. Instead, the most likely outcome is for USD/KZT to trade broadly within the 477-490 tenge per US dollar range during the second half of 2026.
Disclaimer: This material is provided for analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Exchange rates remain highly sensitive to news, external shocks and shifts in market sentiment. Actual outcomes may therefore differ from the scenarios presented above.
National Bureau of Economic Research specifically for EconomyKZ.org
