Not long ago, it seemed that the global economy was finally finding its way back to normal. Inflation was easing after the post-pandemic surge, central banks were discussing future rate cuts, labor markets remained strong, and investment in artificial intelligence was creating a new source of growth. Yet the latest update of the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 paints a very different picture. The most important message is not that global growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026. The real story is that the world economy is beginning to treat crises not as temporary disruptions, but as a permanent feature of economic life.
Over the past few years, each major event would have been considered a significant shock on its own. What makes this period different is that new disruptions arrive before the previous ones have fully faded. The pandemic disrupted global supply chains. Geopolitical tensions intensified. Trade restrictions and technology competition followed. Now a new energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East has been added to the list. As a result, the global economy is gradually moving away from an economy built around efficiency and toward one built around resilience.
The UN report highlights how fragile the global system remains despite decades of globalization. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz became a powerful reminder of this reality. Modern economies may be powered by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital services, but they still depend on physical infrastructure and raw materials. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through this narrow waterway. Disruptions quickly pushed up energy prices, transportation costs, fertilizer prices, and the cost of a wide range of industrial goods. The economy of the twenty-first century suddenly found itself facing a challenge more commonly associated with the oil crises of the last century.
The impact extends far beyond the energy sector. More expensive oil means higher transportation costs. Higher transportation costs make food and manufactured goods more expensive. Rising fertilizer prices increase the risk of future food inflation. Businesses face higher operating costs, while households lose purchasing power. This is why the United Nations has raised its global inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.9%. After years of fighting inflation, the world is once again dealing with renewed price pressures.
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Many entered 2026 with limited fiscal space and elevated debt burdens. They now face more expensive fuel imports, higher food prices, tighter financing conditions, and rising borrowing costs. For some economies, this is not simply a slowdown in growth. It is a direct threat to living standards. The United Nations warns that the latest price shock could worsen food insecurity and push more people into poverty across the world’s most vulnerable regions.
Businesses are also changing the way they operate. For decades, companies focused on cutting costs. Production moved to countries with lower labor expenses. Supply chains were designed around maximum efficiency. Inventories were reduced to the bare minimum. That model worked well in a stable era of globalization. Today, the conversation is changing. More companies are asking not where production is cheapest, but where it is most reliable when the next disruption arrives.
That shift explains why governments and corporations are investing more heavily in local production, backup capacity, and supplier diversification. These decisions improve resilience, but they also increase costs. Extra production facilities require investment. Larger inventories tie up capital. Multiple suppliers are more expensive than one. The world is beginning to pay for supply chain security in the same way it once paid for efficiency.
This trend is clearly visible in the policies of the world’s largest economies. The United States continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, industry, and artificial intelligence. The European Union is increasing spending on energy security, infrastructure, and defense. China is strengthening its push for technological self-reliance and more secure domestic supply chains. Despite their differences, these strategies share a common goal: reducing exposure to external risks.
Financial markets are already reacting. After a relatively strong 2025, investors are once again facing a more uncertain environment. Volatility has increased across equity and commodity markets. Government bond yields are rising. Investors are revising expectations for interest rates. Not long ago, markets were confident that central banks would cut rates more aggressively. That confidence has weakened.
For central banks, the new energy shock creates a difficult balancing act. Economic growth is slowing and would normally call for policy support. At the same time, inflation is accelerating, limiting room for rate cuts. As a result, major central banks are taking a cautious approach and waiting for greater clarity. This suggests that borrowing costs may remain higher for longer than previously expected.
One of the most interesting contradictions in the current economic landscape is artificial intelligence. The UN report identifies AI as one of the few clear sources of optimism. Investment continues to grow, and AI-related trade is helping support global exports. Yet there is also a risk. The report openly warns that the biggest gains from the AI revolution may flow primarily to advanced economies. These countries have the financial resources, infrastructure, and skilled workforce needed to capitalize on new technologies. Many developing economies, meanwhile, are forced to focus on managing energy shocks and debt pressures. As a result, the global technology gap may continue to widen.
The most important conclusion of the report is not found in the growth forecasts or inflation projections. It lies in a deeper shift in how the global economy works. For decades, globalization helped lower costs. Today, reducing risk is becoming a bigger priority than reducing expenses. Governments and businesses once focused on maximizing efficiency. Now they are increasingly focused on building resilience. The goal is no longer simply to cut costs. It is to protect supply chains, strengthen energy security, and reduce vulnerability to future shocks.
That is why the current situation feels less like a temporary disruption and more like a new economic reality. The global economy is still growing. But growth is becoming slower, more complex, and more expensive. The key question is no longer when the next crisis will end. The more important question is how quickly governments and businesses can adapt to a world where disruptions are not the exception, but the norm.
Sultan Valikhanov, expert of the EconomyKZ.org portal
