Kazakhstan’s gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows fell 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, declining from $7.1 billion to $6.3 billion. Excluding the mining sector, gross FDI dropped 17%, while inflows excluding oil and gas extraction were down 16%.
Looking at first-quarter performance over recent years, the trend remains volatile. After reaching $7.9 billion in the first quarter of 2023, gross FDI fell sharply to $6.2 billion in 2024, recovered to $7.1 billion in 2025, and then eased back to $6.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. In other words, foreign investment has yet to establish a stable upward trajectory. Even so, current inflows remain above the level recorded in the first quarter of 2024, although they are still well below those seen in 2023 and 2025.
Sectoral performance was mixed at the start of 2026. The mining industry posted its first annual increase in two years, with FDI rising 14%, driven primarily by oil and gas extraction.
Manufacturing, by contrast, declined 11%, although investment in food, beverages and tobacco production surged nearly fivefold.
Trade attracted 19% more investment, transport and warehousing expanded 38%, while construction rebounded significantly after a weak 2025. Financial services moderated following last year’s sharp increase but remained at an elevated level.
Investment patterns also varied considerably by source country.
The Netherlands remained Kazakhstan’s largest investor in the first quarter of 2026, providing $1.2 billion, although inflows declined 21% year-on-year. It was followed by Russia with $773 million (+46%), the United Arab Emirates with $632 million (-34%), China with $585 million (-28%), Qatar with $508 million (-55%), and the United States with $485 million.
Together, these six countries accounted for approximately $4.45 billion, or roughly 71% of Kazakhstan’s total gross FDI inflows during the quarter.
The regional picture was even more concentrated. Almaty attracted $2.1 billion, while Astana received $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Combined, the country’s two largest cities accounted for around 60% of total FDI inflows.
Adding Atyrau Region, Zhambyl Region, and West Kazakhstan Region brings the share of the top five destinations to roughly 80% of all investment entering the country.
Regional dynamics, however, moved in different directions. Almaty remained Kazakhstan’s largest investment hub, but inflows declined from $3.1 billion to $2.1 billion, largely because of a sharp drop in information and communications investment.
Astana, meanwhile, increased inflows from $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion, supported by financial services, construction, transport and trade.
Atyrau Region recorded one of the strongest gains, with FDI rising from $102 million to $608 million, almost entirely due to mining projects. Investment also increased substantially in Aktobe Region, Zhambyl Region, and Turkistan Region.
Among regions experiencing declines, West Kazakhstan Region saw inflows fall from $735 million to $321 million because of weaker mining investment. East Kazakhstan Region dropped from $443 million to $83 million amid lower manufacturing investment, while Kostanay Region and Akmola Region also recorded notable declines.
Overall, the regional distribution of FDI remains highly uneven. Many regions continue to depend on a single large project or industry, while Kazakhstan’s major cities attract most investment through trade, finance, services and the concentration of corporate headquarters.
The first quarter of 2026 suggests that foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan remains resilient but highly sensitive to changing economic conditions. Following the rebound in 2025, investment flows have moderated, yet investor interest has not disappeared. Rising investment in mining, the recovery of construction, stronger activity in transport and trade, and pockets of growth within manufacturing all point to continued investment across multiple sectors. Perhaps the most encouraging signal is that Kazakhstan continues to attract substantial capital from a diverse group of countries and regional investment hubs, reducing its reliance on any single source of foreign investment.
This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.
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