For the past several years, Kazakhstan’s banking sector has grown primarily through household lending. Retail loans remained the main source of credit portfolio expansion and bank profits. But data as of June 1, 2026 point to the first signs of a shift in that model. In May, banks increased financing to businesses far more rapidly than lending to households. It is still too early to call this a full reversal, but the structure of the credit market is beginning to change.
As of June 1, total banking-sector assets reached KZT 73.0 trillion. They rose by 2.3% in May and by 3.1% since the start of the year. The main contribution came from liquid assets, which increased by 4.0% to KZT 26.8 trillion.
Highly liquid assets stood at KZT 21.0 trillion, equivalent to 28.8% of total banking-sector assets. This level of liquidity suggests that banks retain a substantial buffer to meet their obligations. But the most interesting changes are taking place not on bank balance sheets, but in the composition of lending.
Loans to the economy increased by 1.5% in May to KZT 41.3 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, the portfolio has grown by 2.7%. Business lending was the main source of growth. The corporate loan portfolio expanded by 2.9% in a single month, reaching KZT 15.8 trillion. By comparison, household loans increased by just 0.7% to KZT 25.5 trillion.
The gap is particularly striking given the pattern of recent years, when consumer lending was the main engine of banking-sector growth. Corporate lending is now expanding at almost four times the pace of the retail portfolio.
Large companies made the biggest contribution. Lending to large businesses rose by 6.6% in May to KZT 5.0 trillion. Foreign-currency lending also increased sharply, by 12.9%, supporting the overall result. Even so, the foreign-currency corporate loan portfolio remains below its level at the start of the year despite the May rebound.
Small and medium-sized businesses continued to show solid momentum. SME lending rose by 1.5% during the month to KZT 7.5 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, it has increased by 10.4%, one of the fastest growth rates among all borrower categories.
Loans to individual entrepreneurs also continued to expand. The portfolio increased by 1.0% in May to KZT 3.3 trillion and is up 5.2% since the start of the year. The sectoral breakdown of lending is equally revealing. Credit increased across almost all major areas of the economy. The strongest growth was recorded in industry, where lending rose by 5.0% to KZT 5.3 trillion. Other services also posted a substantial increase, with the loan portfolio expanding by 6.2% to KZT 2.9 trillion.
Financing for construction continued to grow, rising by 1.3% to KZT 840 billion. Lending to trade increased by 0.8% to KZT 4.2 trillion, while loans for real estate activities rose by 0.5% to KZT 880 billion. Even agriculture remained in positive territory, with lending increasing by 0.4% to KZT 501 billion. Transport and communications were the only exceptions. Banks reduced lending to these sectors by 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively. Another important indicator is the volume of new lending. Banks issued KZT 3.1 trillion in new loans during May, broadly unchanged from the same period last year. But the composition of that lending changed significantly.
Businesses received KZT 1.7 trillion in new loans, 10.3% more than a year earlier. Lending to SMEs grew particularly quickly, increasing by 33.5% compared with May 2025. This is one of the clearest signals that the structure of bank lending is beginning to shift. The retail segment, meanwhile, continues to grow at a more moderate pace. The total household loan portfolio reached KZT 25.5 trillion.
Consumer loans still account for the largest share. They rose by 0.5% in May to KZT 17.1 trillion, with unsecured consumer lending providing most of the increase. Mortgage lending also continued to expand. Housing loans increased by 1.5% in May to KZT 7.3 trillion. Since the start of the year, the mortgage portfolio has grown by 5.3%, faster than household lending overall. At the same time, the cost of bank credit remains high.
The weighted average interest rate on new tenge-denominated business loans rose to 22.3%. The increase was driven mainly by higher borrowing costs for large companies, where the average rate climbed from 19.5% to 20.0%. For households, the average lending rate increased to 21.4% from 21.2% a month earlier. The rate on consumer loans reached 23.2%.
Credit quality remains stable. Loans overdue by more than 90 days accounted for 4.2% of the total loan portfolio, or KZT 1.9 trillion. The non-performing loan ratio stood at 3.3% in the corporate segment and 4.9% in retail. Provision coverage remained high at 61.0%.
Customer deposits continue to finance balance-sheet growth. Bank liabilities increased by 2.6% in May to KZT 62.0 trillion. Customer funds account for almost four-fifths of total liabilities. Deposits held by residents reached KZT 47.9 trillion. Household deposits grew particularly quickly, rising by 2.2% during the month. Corporate deposits increased by a more modest 0.8%.
Dollarisation continued to decline. Foreign-currency deposits fell by 0.4%, reducing their share of total deposits to 20.0% from 20.4% a month earlier. The decline was driven mainly by corporate foreign-currency deposits, as businesses used part of their funds for operating and investment needs.
Bank capital also continued to increase. Equity rose by 0.7% in May to KZT 11.1 trillion. Capital adequacy ratios remain well above regulatory requirements. The Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 19.8%, while the total capital adequacy ratio was 20.5%. The sector’s financial performance, however, is less clear-cut.
Banks reported net profit of KZT 1.036 trillion for the first five months of the year, 9.4% less than in the same period of 2025. Profitability indicators also weakened. Return on assets declined to 3.8% from 3.9% a month earlier, while return on equity fell to 25.2% from 26.1%.
Taken together, the May data point to a gradual shift in the structure of Kazakhstan’s banking market. Assets, liquidity, capital and deposits are all continuing to grow. But the defining development of the month was the acceleration in corporate lending. Banks expanded financing to businesses much more actively than lending to households. Large companies, SMEs, industry and services recorded particularly strong growth.
It is still too early to speak of a complete change in the banking sector’s growth model. Even so, May was one of the most notable months of 2026 in terms of the reallocation of credit activity towards the real economy.
Alen Serik, expert of the portal EconomyKZ.org
