EC[ON]OMY

Demand for road freight transport to Russia declines in Kazakhstan

Demand for import road freight and domestic transportation in Kazakhstan increased in the second quarter of 2026, while export shipments weakened sharply, driven primarily by falling volumes on the Russian route. These trends are based on data from the international logistics marketplace ATI.SU.

The number of export freight requests posted on ATI.SU fell by 43% year-on-year in the second quarter and was 9% lower than in the first quarter of 2026.

The steepest decline was recorded on the Russian route, where demand dropped 48% from a year earlier. Export requests to Uzbekistan declined by 10%, while Belarus remained the only major market to post growth, with freight requests rising 20% year-on-year. Weak demand also kept export freight rates under pressure. Average rates in the second quarter were broadly unchanged from a year earlier, increasing by just 2%.

Import freight showed a much stronger performance. The number of import shipment requests rose 12% year-on-year, supported by a 45% increase in demand for transport from China. Belarus also maintained positive momentum, with requests up 20%, while imports from Russia declined by 4%. Unlike exports, import freight rates rose significantly, climbing 23% compared with the second quarter of 2025.

Domestic road freight transportation within Kazakhstan also strengthened. Shipment requests increased 12% year-on-year, while freight rates advanced 23%.

“The decline in demand on the Russian route reflects several factors, including tighter customs controls, border congestion, the continued scaling back of parallel imports, and stricter regulatory requirements. Recent measures include the introduction of electronic navigation seals for certain categories of goods and Russia’s SPOT cargo verification system. We expect these trends to continue in the third quarter, particularly following the full rollout of SPOT from July 1, when security deposits became mandatory, as well as ongoing fuel supply disruptions in Russia. By contrast, most other international routes continue to show steady, gradual growth,”

said Renata Zobova, Director of ATI.SU’s Kazakhstan office.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.

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