Kazakhstan’s trade sector showed stronger momentum in 2025. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the physical volume index (PVI) for trade reached 109% in January–October, up from 107.3% a year earlier. The main source of growth was wholesale trade, which expanded faster than any other segment. Retail trade also continued to grow steadily, with the private sector playing a dominant role and consumer demand remaining balanced.
The acceleration of the trade sector supports the country’s non-extractive economy. Wholesale trade makes up the largest share of total turnover, and its growth reflects stronger logistics activity, rising industrial demand, and increased interregional supply. Retail performance shows stable consumer demand and the growing importance of small businesses.
Wholesale trade reached its strongest pace in the last two years. The PVI hit 109.7%, up from 106.6% in 2024. Total wholesale turnover amounted to 40.5 trillion tenge.
Key features of the wholesale market:
• 82% of turnover came from non-food items and industrial-technical products.
• Most trade flows were concentrated in major cities and industrial regions.
Regional shares in wholesale turnover:
• Almaty – 35.6%,
• Astana – 15.6%,
• Atyrau Region – 13.7%,
• Karaganda Region – 6.1%.
Together, these four regions accounted for more than 70% of all wholesale trade in the country. This structure highlights the central role of major economic hubs in Kazakhstan’s trade system.
Retail trade posted a PVI of 107.4%, slightly below last year’s 108.7%, but still showing expansion. Total retail turnover reached 20,040.7 billion tenge, representing 7.4% growth compared to 2024.
Growth came from two main sources:
• retail enterprises – +6.2%;
• individual entrepreneurs and market traders – +9.9%.
This shows that small businesses remained the most dynamic part of the retail sector in 2025.
Private-sector companies accounted for 89.8% of retail turnover, or 17.99 trillion tenge, since the start of the year. Foreign-owned enterprises made up 10.2% (2.04 trillion tenge).
The structure of retail goods remained stable:
• food products – 32.9%,
• non-food products – 67.1%.
Growth rates were nearly identical:
• food – +7.5%,
• non-food – +7.3%.
This indicates balanced consumer demand and no significant shifts in purchasing patterns.
Regional distribution shows clear concentration in major cities:
• Almaty – 33.2%,
• Astana – 14%,
• Karaganda Region – 7.3%,
• East Kazakhstan Region – 5.2%.
Regions with the smallest shares:
• Ulytau – 0.5%,
• Zhetysu – 1.3%,
• North Kazakhstan Region – 1.8%.
Almaty alone accounts for one-third of the country’s retail market, underscoring its strong purchasing power and large consumer base.
As of 1 November 2025, retail businesses reported:
• 1.588 trillion tenge in inventory,
• equal to 61 days of trade.
This level signals a stable market. There are no signs of shortages or excessive buildup. Maintaining inventory for roughly two months supports smooth supply chains and uninterrupted retail operations.
Data for January–October 2025 shows that Kazakhstan’s trade sector is expanding steadily. The sector’s overall PVI rose to 109%. Wholesale trade became the strongest driver of growth, while retail maintained stable performance. Consumer demand remained balanced, and the private sector continued to dominate the market.
Almaty and Astana strengthened their positions as the country’s main trade hubs. Inventory levels indicate stable supply chains. Overall, trade remained one of the key contributors to Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2025.
Sultan Valikhanov, expert of the EconomyKZ.org portal
