Almaty remains one of Kazakhstan’s main investment centers. Fixed-capital investment reached KZT 1.483 trillion in the first eight months of 2026. That was 11% of the national total. The city ranked second after Astana.
However, a large headline figure can hide a weaker trend. Real investment in Almaty rose by 3.8%. Kazakhstan as a whole grew by 8.1%.
The gap matters. It shows that Almaty is attracting capital at scale. Yet its investment momentum is slower than the national average.
Almaty keeps its scale
Investment in Almaty totaled KZT 1,483.1 billion in January-August. Astana recorded KZT 1,515.2 billion over the same period. The difference between the two cities was therefore small.
Nominal sums do not tell the whole story. Prices can raise the value of investment without raising its real volume. For this reason, the physical volume index is more useful.
Almaty’s index stood at 103.8%. In other words, real investment grew by 3.8% year on year. The national index reached 108.1%.
As a result, Almaty kept its position as a major investment hub. Still, the city expanded more slowly than Kazakhstan overall.
Image generated using AI
Digital infrastructure is gaining weight
The investment mix points to a clear shift. Communications, digital infrastructure, energy, transport and urban projects supported the city’s growth.
Almaty accounted for 57% of national investment in information and communication. This makes it Kazakhstan’s main digital investment center. Banks, IT firms and telecom operators are strongly represented in the city.
Moreover, digital investment supports several parts of the urban economy. It can strengthen business services, e-commerce and financial technology. It also supports corporate infrastructure.
Energy was another important direction. Investment rose during large infrastructure works. The modernization of Almaty CHP-2 was among the visible projects.
This matters beyond construction. Energy projects affect heat supply reliability. They also matter for environmental modernization and future demand.
Transport and logistics remain important
Transport attracted 17.8% of Almaty’s investment. The sector includes logistics and urban transport. These investments support the city’s role as a business center and consumer market.
Meanwhile, capital is not spread evenly across Almaty. Bostandyk, Alatau and Medeu districts received the largest volumes. Together, they accounted for more than half of city investment.
Alatau was one of the main sources of growth. Energy, transport and logistics projects stood out there. Medeu benefited from telecommunications and digital infrastructure.
In contrast, Auezov and Nauryzbay districts saw real investment decline. Bostandyk had the largest volume. Even so, its growth rate slowed.
The pattern is clear. A limited number of districts and projects are driving the city’s result.
Housing remains the largest category
Housing was still the largest investment category. It received about KZT 429 billion in the first eight months. That was 28.9% of all investment in Almaty.
However, real investment in housing fell by 5.5%. This does not automatically mean fewer homes will be completed. Investment, construction work and completed housing measure different stages.
Even so, the trend is important. Housing is no longer delivering the same investment impulse. This leaves the city more dependent on infrastructure and technology projects.
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Industry has yet to become a major driver
Industry accounted for around 12% of Almaty’s investment. That is a modest share for the country’s largest city.
Several industrial projects have been announced. They include projects in machine building, pharmaceuticals and construction materials. Yet current data do not show broad industrial investment growth.
This requires caution. Sectoral data cannot show the exact stage of every project. Additional company or city administration data would be needed.
Nevertheless, the main conclusion is clear. Industrial construction was not the leading source of Almaty’s investment growth in January-August 2026.
For now, the city’s model remains urban and service-led. Real estate, transport, communications, energy and business services dominate the picture.
What to watch next
Four areas will shape the rest of 2026.
First, energy projects in Alatau district will matter. Large projects can lift the annual total. Their effect may fade after construction is completed.
Second, digital infrastructure will remain important. Communications already have a high investment base. Further growth in the sector could influence the full-year result.
Third, housing needs close attention. A continued real decline would limit overall investment growth. It would also change the structure of the city’s investment model.
Finally, industrial projects are worth watching. Their move into active construction would broaden the city’s investment base. It could also reduce dependence on several large infrastructure projects.
Overall, Almaty remains a major destination for capital. The more important question is what that capital creates. Sustainable growth will depend on new production, productive jobs and private projects that last beyond individual construction cycles.
Yernar Serik, National Bureau of Economic Research, Author of the Tradereport Telegram channel. Written exclusively for www.economyKZ.org
