The world of business is learning to live with uncertainty. According to McKinsey’s Economic Conditions Outlook, September 2025, global executives once again named trade policy changes and geopolitical instability as the top threats to the economy. For the second consecutive quarter, shifts in trade rules have become the main drag on growth – both globally and within domestic markets.
Yet behind this anxiety lies a quiet transformation. More companies are now viewing this volatile trade environment not just as a risk, but as a potential source of opportunity.
The McKinsey Global Survey included 799 executives across 81 countries, covering all major industries and company sizes. The data was adjusted for each region’s share of global GDP to ensure balance. The takeaway is clear: business leaders are no longer waiting for stability – they are adapting to it. Companies are rethinking supply chains, pricing, and investment strategies to navigate a new trade reality.
Trade policy now sits at the heart of global economic turbulence.
Roughly 60% of executives cite changes in tariffs and trade relationships as the biggest risk to global growth, followed by geopolitical conflicts.
Regional perspectives differ: in Asia, Europe, India, and North America, trade barriers are seen as the main danger; in China, economic volatility dominates; while in Latin America and the Middle East, domestic political instability takes center stage.
Despite the uncertainty, more companies are finding opportunity in chaos.
The share of executives viewing trade changes as a growth driver has nearly doubled in a year – from 8% in late 2024 to 15% by September 2025.
It’s still a minority, but the shift in mindset is unmistakable.
Confidence, however, remains fragile. Only 34% of respondentssay their organizations are ready to handle trade policy changes effectively.
Even so, action is already underway. Two-thirds of companies worldwide have modified their business strategies due to U.S. trade policy shifts.
The most common responses include:
– Scenario planning and risk modeling;
– Price adjustments;
– Supply chain restructuring;
– Renegotiation with suppliers;
– Product redesign and capital reallocation.
Chinese companies stand out as the most agile. They are diversifying suppliers, localizing production, and moving swiftly to mitigate risk – turning disruption into a competitive edge.
Executives’ assessment of global conditions has improved slightly compared to June 2025.
The number describing the global economy as “substantially worse” has fallen by half, while more now report “moderately better” conditions.
Still, expectations for the next six months remain cautious: the majority anticipate declining rather than improving economic conditions.
Nationally, the mood hasn’t changed much.
More respondents say their domestic economies have weakened than improved.
Europe and North America remain the most pessimistic, while China and India are the most optimistic.
For the first time since early 2020, more leaders expect their national economies to deteriorate than to improve.
Europe once again emerges as the weakest link, with declining confidence and fears of stagnation.
Labor market anxiety is also rising.
For the first time in five years, over half of respondents (53%)expect unemployment in their countries to rise in the next six months – up from 46% in June.
In North America, two-thirds share this view.
In Europe and developing markets, pessimism about employment has grown sharply.
In China, however, sentiment is stabilizing: only half now expect job losses, compared to a majority in the previous quarter.
Since 2020, McKinsey has recorded little return of optimism. After the pandemic, energy shocks, and trade disputes, global business seems permanently cautious.
By September 2025, uncertainty is no longer seen as an exception – it’s the new normal.
Companies are learning not to wait for stability but to operate within volatility.
Methodologically, McKinsey introduced an important improvement in 2025:
the survey now uses regional weighting based on purchasing power parity rather than country weighting, to better reflect each region’s contribution to global GDP.
Additionally, the Chinese sample was expanded to include second-tier cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou, offering a more nuanced picture of local sentiment beyond major metropolitan areas.
Key takeaways
1. Trade policy is the core disruptor.
It affects not just exports and imports, but investment, labor, and sentiment across industries.
2. Companies are reframing risk as opportunity.
Those that adapt fast are finding growth in the very volatility others fear.
3. Europe is once again the world’s pessimistic center.
Executives expect stagnation and rising unemployment.
4. Asia remains relatively resilient.
China and India still show optimism and forward-looking confidence.
For Kazakhstan, the findings from McKinsey’s report are not abstract – they point directly to strategic opportunities.
First, as trade routes and supply chains shift, Kazakhstan can strengthen its role as a regional logistics hub connecting Asia and Europe.
Proactive policy and infrastructure investment could turn this disruption into long-term advantage.
Second, the report highlights the global shift toward scenario-based planning and flexibility.
Kazakh businesses can benefit by adopting the same mindset – building capacity for risk analysis, supply diversification, and local production.
Third, with unemployment concerns rising in advanced economies, new global labor dynamics could emerge.
Kazakhstan should seize this window to invest in workforce skills and attract foreign investment seeking stable, cost-efficient markets.
Fourth, McKinsey’s data shows that many companies still lack confidence in managing trade risks.
Kazakhstan can position itself as a regional leader in financial and trade risk management, developing new tools for exporters and investors.
Finally, the global trade realignment offers a rare chance for industrial modernization.
In a world divided into trade blocs, Kazakhstan can act as a bridge, not a bystander – provided it acts swiftly, strategically, and with confidence in its own adaptability.
Sultan Valikhanov, expert of the EconomyKZ.org portal
