In the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover reached $71.79 billion (+7.2% y/y), the highest January-June figure in the available data since 2021. Exports rose to $40.33 billion (+8.6%), while imports increased to $31.46 billion (+5.4%). The trade surplus widened to $8.87 billion from $7.30 billion a year earlier.
The key trend of the first half – a sharp turnaround in June
Trade dynamics were uneven during the first half of the year. After a strong first quarter, turnover fell by 1.8% y/y in April and by a further 9.4% in May. June, however, brought a sharp recovery: trade turnover reached $15.25 billion, up 20.4% from June 2025.
The June rebound was driven almost entirely by exports, which surged 36.2% y/y to $9.81 billion. Imports remained broadly unchanged from a year earlier (-0.3%, $5.44 billion). As a result, cumulative growth in trade turnover, which had slowed to +4.1% after the first five months, recovered to +7.2% for the first half as a whole.
China strengthens its position as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner
China remains Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $16.65 billion (+9.3%) in the first half, equivalent to 23.2% of the country’s total foreign trade. Russia ranks second at $13.22 billion (+6.9%), accounting for 18.4%. Together, China and Russia represent 41.6% of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover.
Among Kazakhstan’s largest trading partners, Turkey recorded the strongest growth, with turnover surging 62.7% to $3.93 billion. Trade with Uzbekistan rose 34.7% to $2.81 billion, with the United States by 25.2% to $1.88 billion, and with France by 16.8% to $2.94 billion.
The most significant decline was recorded in trade with Italy, which fell 12.8% to $7.66 billion.
Growth in trade was also highly concentrated. Turkey, China, Russia and Uzbekistan together contributed around $4.51 billion in additional turnover, accounting for almost 94% of Kazakhstan’s net increase in foreign trade over the year. Declines in trade with Italy, the Republic of Korea and the Netherlands partially offset this growth.
Trade geography shifts towards Asia and the CIS
At the regional level, Asia and the CIS are driving most of the growth in 2026. Trade with Asian countries excluding the CIS rose 14.0% to $26.09 billion and now accounts for 36.3% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade. Trade with the CIS increased 11.4% to $19.39 billion, including an 8.7% rise in trade with the EAEU to $15.17 billion.
The European direction, by contrast, weakened. Trade with the EU-27 fell 6.8% to $20.85 billion. Its share declined from around 33.4% to 29.0% over the year. In absolute terms, trade with the EU decreased by $1.52 billion, while Asia excluding the CIS added $3.20 billion and the CIS almost $2.0 billion.
Central Asia is becoming more prominent in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade
Central Asia stands out as a separate growth area. Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with its four neighboring countries in the region rose 28.1% to $5.10 billion. Central Asia’s share of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade increased from around 5.9% to 7.1%.
Uzbekistan accounts for more than half of Kazakhstan’s trade with Central Asia, at 55.1%. It is followed by Kyrgyzstan at 25.0%, Tajikistan at 14.5% and Turkmenistan at 5.4%. Trade is growing fastest with Uzbekistan (+34.7%) and Tajikistan (+27.8%).
Trade with Organization of Turkic States members is growing even faster
Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with members of the Organization of Turkic States rose 40.2% to $8.22 billion, reaching 11.5% of the country’s total foreign trade. Turkey accounts for 47.8% of trade within the group, Uzbekistan for 34.2% and Kyrgyzstan for 15.5%. Trade with Azerbaijan, however, fell by 31.6%.
Kazakhstan’s largest trading partners have very different trade structures
High trade turnover does not necessarily mean balanced trade. Kazakhstan continues to run deficits with China and, especially, Russia, while recording substantial surpluses with Italy, Turkey, France and Uzbekistan.
The first half of 2026 shows not only an expansion in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade, but also a noticeable shift in its geography. After the downturn in April and May, June brought a sharp return to growth, driven by exports. China remains the country’s largest trading partner, while Turkey and Central Asia have gained significant ground and the EU’s share has declined. As a result, the center of growth in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade is increasingly shifting towards Asia, the CIS and nearby regional markets.
National Bureau of Economic Research specifically for EconomyKZ.org
