Challenges and solutions for Kazakhstan’s heating system

District heating remains one of the core elements of Kazakhstan’s energy system. This is especially true in the northern and eastern regions, where the heating season can last up to seven months. Reliable heat supply directly affects schools, hospitals, public buildings, and housing.

Since 1991, Kazakhstan’s energy intensity has fallen from 0.88 to 0.315 tons of oil equivalent per $1,000 of GDP (in 2015 prices). This is real progress. However, as of 2023, Kazakhstan is still 1.8–2.5 times less energy-efficient than OECD countries. Improving district heating is one of the key tools for further reducing energy intensity.

The system includes 37 combined heat and power plants (CHPs) and nearly 6,000 boiler houses. The technical condition remains a major concern. Of the 37 CHPs, 19 are classified as “high risk,” 11 as “medium risk,” and only 7 as “low risk.” This means more than half of centralized heat sources operate with an elevated risk of failure.

In 2023, Kazakhstan produced 95,491.9 thousand Gcal of heat energy. This is 1.3% higher than in 2022 and 17% higher than in 2015. The increase in heat demand has several reasons.

Table 1 – Heat Energy Production (Republic of Kazakhstan)

First, heated floor space continues to grow. New housing, social facilities, and commercial buildings are being added. Second, a large part of the housing stock remains energy-inefficient. Old buildings require more heat. Third, the rollout of individual heat substations, weather-based controls, and proper insulation is moving slowly.

The structure of heat production is also changing. In 2023, the share of CHP plants fell to 56.3% from 59% a year earlier. In absolute terms, CHPs produced 53.8 million Gcal. Boiler houses increased output by 9%, reaching 34.5 million Gcal, and raised their share to 36.1%. Other sources, including autonomous and alternative systems, accounted for 7.5%.

This means more than one-third of heat in Kazakhstan is still produced in decentralized systems. Such a structure makes system management, accounting, modernization, and digital control much harder.

Kazakhstan’s district heating system is highly uneven across regions.

In regions dominated by CHP plants, systems tend to be more efficient. But risks are also concentrated. Overloaded plants are vulnerable to failures, and any disruption can affect large areas at once.

The most vulnerable group is regions dominated by boiler houses. In Zhetysu, 86.3% of heat is produced by boilers. In Akmola – 79.2%, in Abai – 75.5%, in Zhambyl – 65.1%, and in Atyrau – 69.4%. These regions rely on many small, worn-out, and poorly automated units.

Fragmentation leads to higher heat losses, complex dispatching, and limited digital control.

Mangystau deserves special attention. There, “other sources” account for 37.1% of heat production. This points to the widespread use of autonomous and modular systems, which require a clear regulatory and strategic framework.

The current structure is shaped by several factors. Historical specialization played a key role. Large coal-based energy hubs were built in Pavlodar and Karaganda during the Soviet period, leading to strong centralized CHP systems. Climate reinforced this model. In harsh northern and central regions, centralized heating proved more reliable. Urbanization also matters. High building density in large cities makes CHP plants the most practical solution.

In southern and rural regions, the picture is different. Aging networks, scattered settlements, limited investment, and weak access to capital slow down modernization and centralization.

Several structural problems stand out.

First, regional imbalance of load. Some regions overload CHPs, while others rely on hundreds of small boilers.

Second, fragmented infrastructure. This increases heat losses, creates uneven demand profiles, and complicates system control.

Third, limited digitalization. Decentralized systems are harder to automate and monitor.

Fourth, the growing role of autonomous solutions without a unified strategy to integrate them into the overall heating system.

For boiler-dominated regions, key steps include consolidating small sources, introducing high-efficiency modular boilers, upgrading networks, and installing weather-based controls.

For CHP-heavy regions, priorities are equipment upgrades, efficiency improvements, and the development of cogeneration and links with suburban areas.

For all regions, heating master plans need revision based on demographics, climate trends, and urban growth. Energy efficiency should be built into tariff and investment policies. A system for continuous monitoring of heat losses is also essential.

Growth in heat production alone does not solve the problem. Kazakhstan’s district heating system faces a clear choice: continue patching aging infrastructure or move toward deep, system-wide modernization tailored to regional conditions. Without the second path, lower energy intensity and better living standards will remain out of reach.