Investment in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector continued to accelerate in 2026. During the first five months of the year, investment in fixed capital within manufacturing reached KZT 1.1 trillion, up 29.2% compared to the same period last year. In just five months, the sector has already absorbed 38% of the total investment recorded during all of 2025. The pace has clearly picked up. In January-April, investment growth stood at 21.5% with KZT 715.7 billion invested. This means roughly KZT 339.6 billion was invested in manufacturing during May alone.
The main pattern remains unchanged: growth is still highly concentrated. The top four regions – Zhambyl, Almaty, Atyrau, and Karaganda regions – account for 53.4% of all manufacturing investment in the country. A broad-based industrial expansion is still not visible.
1. Zhambyl Region remains the clear leader
Zhambyl Region attracted KZT 254.4 billion, accounting for 24.1% of the national total. Investment surged by 228.5% year-on-year, and the region has already reached 83% of its full-year 2025 investment volume. This suggests the region is currently in the peak phase of a major investment cycle. If current trends continue, Zhambyl could surpass last year’s total investment level within the next few months.
The main driver is Fufeng Group’s approximately $800 million corn deep-processing project in Shu District. Another major project is EuroChem’s $1 billion sulfuric acid plant in Sarysu District, where more than 70% of the third construction phase has already been completed.
2. Almaty Region holds second place
Almaty Region remains one of the country’s key industrial growth centers. Investment reached KZT 114.2 billion, equal to 10.8% of the national total, while growth reached 180.1% compared to last year. The region has already achieved 41% of its 2025 investment volume. A major ongoing project is the $344 million Carlsberg Kazakhstan plant that will produce PepsiCo non-alcoholic beverages in Ili District.
3. Atyrau Region moves into third place
Atyrau climbed from fourth to third place with KZT 109.0 billion in investment, representing 10.3% of the national total. Investment increased by 208.7% year-on-year. Despite this strong growth, only 26% of last year’s full investment volume has been achieved so far, suggesting that the largest part of the investment cycle may still be ahead.
The region is home to one of Kazakhstan’s largest manufacturing projects – the Silleno polyethylene plant, designed to produce 1.25 million tons annually with total investment exceeding $7 billion.
4. Karaganda Region slips to fourth
Karaganda dropped from third to fourth place with KZT 86.7 billion invested and an 8.2% share of the national total. Growth remains negative at just 70.1% of last year’s level. The region continues to rank highly mainly because of its long-established industrial base rather than new investment momentum.
Earlier data showed investment in Temirtau’s metallurgy sector nearly halved, while investment in non-metallic mineral products in Saran increased almost tenfold. This likely reflects active construction of TechnoNICOL’s third plant in the Saran industrial zone, a project worth KZT 55 billion.
5. Pavlodar Region moves up one position
Pavlodar climbed to fifth place with KZT 68.1 billion invested, accounting for 6.5% of the national total. However, growth remains weak. Investment stands at 90.7% of last year’s level. Like Karaganda, Pavlodar remains near the top primarily because of its industrial scale. For now, this looks more like maintaining existing positions than launching a new investment boom.
6. Aktobe Region becomes the month’s biggest surprise
Aktobe jumped from eighth to sixth place. Investment reached KZT 67.6 billion, up 445.5% year-on-year. Compared to January-April, investment increased from KZT 27.6 billion to KZT 67.6 billion, meaning roughly KZT 40 billion was added during May alone. This is more than just a low-base effect. It looks like a genuine investment surge.
The region has already achieved 68% of its entire 2025 investment volume. The main contribution likely comes from two Chinese-backed cement projects: a plant involving West China Cement in Alga District and the QazCem Industries project developed together with Sinoma Cement in Baiganin District. In other words, Aktobe’s May breakthrough appears closely linked to major Chinese investment in construction materials production.
7. Kostanay Region falls to seventh
Kostanay dropped from fifth to seventh place with KZT 63.4 billion invested and a 6.0% national share. After investment growth of 46.6% in April, the region posted a decline of nearly 10% in May. This supports the view that April’s jump may have been driven by one-off financing or subsidized funding. The main investment areas remain automotive manufacturing and metallurgy, with many projects concentrated in Kostanay’s Industrial Zone.
8. Astana jumps four places
Astana moved from 12th to 8th place. Manufacturing investment reached KZT 49.2 billion, up 305.3% from a year earlier. This was one of the most notable shifts in May. However, only 20% of the city’s 2025 investment volume has been achieved so far, making it too early to talk about a lasting industrial turnaround. One interesting detail is the sharp increase in food manufacturing investment in the Yesil District. This stands out because the district is primarily known as Astana’s administrative and business center, not a manufacturing hub.
In other words, Astana’s May surge deserves a closer look at the project level. Greetings to the city administration.
9. Turkistan Region drops to ninth
Turkistan fell from seventh to ninth place. Investment totaled KZT 48.3 billion, representing 4.6% of the national total. Growth was negative at 73.4% of last year’s level. At the same time, the region has already achieved 72% of its full-year 2025 volume. This suggests that while accumulated investment remains relatively strong, new momentum is weaker than a year ago.
Investment is spread across food processing, chemicals, and several other manufacturing industries.
10. Akmola Region rounds out the top ten
Akmola ranked tenth with KZT 36.5 billion invested. Its national share reached 3.5%, while growth stood at 261.1% year-on-year. The region continues to post strong growth, although much of it may be tied to a handful of major projects rather than a broad industrial base.
The below-average group
This group includes Shymkent, East Kazakhstan Region, North Kazakhstan Region, Almaty city, and West Kazakhstan Region. Shymkent climbed from 14th to 11th place with KZT 30.1 billion invested and growth of 126.4%.
East Kazakhstan and North Kazakhstan both fell two positions. East Kazakhstan recorded KZT 25.6 billion, only 61.1% of last year’s level. North Kazakhstan reached KZT 23.4 billion, roughly matching last year’s result at 98.2%.
Almaty remains a relatively weak center for manufacturing investment. The country’s largest city attracted just KZT 18.2 billion, accounting for only 1.7% of national manufacturing investment.
West Kazakhstan Region slipped from 13th to 15th place. Investment totaled KZT 15.2 billion, but most of this had already been recorded earlier in the year. Growth since April was minimal.
This supports the view that the previous jump was likely linked to a one-time equipment purchase or a single large project.
The laggards
The bottom of the ranking includes Mangystau, Abai, Kyzylorda, Zhetisu, and Ulytau regions. Mangystau improved slightly in the ranking, but the overall picture remains weak. Investment totaled KZT 14.8 billion, representing 1.4% of the national total and only 30.7% of last year’s level. For a region with a major hydrocarbon base, this is particularly telling. Deep processing of oil and gas remains more of a long-term ambition than a steady investment reality.
Abai Region recorded KZT 12.8 billion, Kyzylorda KZT 11.2 billion, Zhetisu KZT 3.6 billion, and Ulytau KZT 2.8 billion. The latter two regions account for just 0.3% of national manufacturing investment each.
The overall picture for January-May is largely positive. Manufacturing investment has accelerated sharply and already exceeded KZT 1 trillion. Growth of 29.2% shows that many industrial projects are moving beyond presentations and announcements into actual construction and capital spending. Yes, growth remains concentrated. But large projects are often the first stage of any major industrial expansion.
The biggest contributors to this acceleration are Chinese and Russian investors, along with the Carlsberg/PepsiCo project in Almaty Region. Chinese capital is driving cement projects in Aktobe and the Fufeng project in Zhambyl. Russian investors are visible through EuroChem and TechnoNICOL. Carlsberg/PepsiCo is strengthening food manufacturing in Almaty Region. In other words, Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector is no longer defined only by percentages and statistics. Real factories, real companies, and real investment cycles are becoming increasingly visible.
It would be a major step forward if every region had anchor projects similar to those currently seen in Zhambyl and Almaty regions. That would make manufacturing growth less dependent on isolated spikes and move the country closer to a truly broad industrial expansion.
Yernar Serik, National Bureau of Economic Research, author of the Tradereport Telegram channel, exclusively for www.economyKZ.org
