Pavlodar Region’s foreign trade turnover in the first half of 2026 reached $2.87 billion (+9.4%): exports grew much faster ($2.24 billion, +19.7%), while imports declined ($625.8 million, -16.4%) – the region is clearly expanding sales while cutting purchases. Its share of Kazakhstan’s total trade remains modest: 5.56% of exports, 1.99% of imports and 3.99% of overall turnover.
China ($1.41 billion, +41.7%) is comfortably ahead of Russia ($719.9 million, -10.2%) as the region’s largest trading partner by turnover, while Turkey has posted explosive growth from a very low base (+385.5%, to $119.0 million). Germany and Italy, by contrast, are declining in tandem.
Exports
Exports in the first half of 2026 rose to $2.24 billion (+19.7%). Food products accounted for a modest 2.4% ($54.4 million), although they grew faster than overall exports (+44.7%).
Copper ore ($925.5 million, 100% shipped to China) and ferrochrome ($483.4 million) form the backbone of exports, followed by unwrought aluminium sold to Turkey, Italy and Poland.
Exports to China have risen from almost nothing in 2015 ($7.5 million) to a sustained $1.1-1.7 billion in 2020-2025. This is a long-established structural shift, not a new development in the current half-year, and the latest growth (+41.7%) is a continuation of the trend rather than its beginning. Trade with Russia, meanwhile, has remained within a relatively narrow range of $600 million to $1.1 billion throughout the period, with no clear trend.
Imports
Imports in the first half of 2026 fell to $625.8 million (-16.4%) – a rare case of a major industrial region cutting its purchases. Food products accounted for 9.9% ($61.9 million).
Alloy steel and sodium carbonate from Russia (100%), along with machining centres from Germany, make up a typical mix of raw materials and equipment for the region’s own metals industry.
Imports from China are volatile, with no clear trend – from $552 million in 2015, they plunged to $83-118 million in 2017-2019 before recovering moderately to $193-346 million in 2023-2025. The current decline (-31.5%) should be read as a continuation of those fluctuations rather than a new reversal.
Pavlodar Region presents a combination rarely seen among Kazakhstan’s regions – rising exports alongside contracting imports, with growth driven by a well-established rather than a newly emerging trade channel to China. Turkey is worth watching at the margins: from an almost negligible base, it has already become a significant market for the region’s aluminium.
National Bureau of Economic Research specifically for EconomyKZ.org
