Top 5 Investment Trends in Kazakhstan

There was a time when oil and gas were the anchors of investment in Kazakhstan, accounting for over 40% of total flows. But since 2021 investments in the sector have been steadily declining.

There are several factors behind this: the completion of peak phases of major projects like the Tengiz expansion, investors’ caution amid the shift toward a “green” economy, mounting pressure on carbon-heavy industries, and instability in global oil markets.
Where oil used to drive investment growth, today it is dragging overall performance down. It’s a clear signal: Kazakhstan can no longer rely solely on petrodollars.

2. Atyrau Region Is No Longer the Top Investment Hub

Another major shift: the “center of gravity” is moving. Atyrau, the traditional investment leader thanks to oil and gas, is losing its dominance.
In 2024 for the first time, investment growth in other regions — such as Turkistan and Almaty regions — outpaced the oil capital.
This is a structural change: infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing projects are gaining more attention, and Kazakhstan’s investment map is becoming more balanced.

3.Government Spending Is on the Rise

The state is stepping up: the share of government-driven investments now makes up 22% of total capital investment.
The focus is on infrastructure, healthcare, education, water supply, and thermal power plants.
This trend makes sense, given the partial stagnation in private sector investment: the government is stepping in to “restart” economic activity.
However, the bigger question is whether project management quality will be good enough to deliver real results.

4. Capital Equipment Investment Is Declining

Another worrying trend: investment in equipment upgrades and overhauls is dropping.
Despite overall investment growth, spending on technical modernization fell by 14.5% in the first quarter.
This is a red flag: without refreshing production facilities Kazakhstan risks losing its competitiveness.
Companies seem to either be cutting costs or not seeing enough incentive for long-term investment.
This could hurt productivity and product quality within just a few years.

5. Manufacturing Investments Are Growing for the Second Year

A bright spot among the trends: investment in manufacturing has been growing steadily, up 20% for the second year in a row.
The strongest gains are seen in food processing, metalworking, pharmaceuticals, and building materials.
This momentum needs to be reinforced: manufacturing is the backbone of economic diversification and higher-value exports.
It also creates jobs, boosts tax revenues, and strengthens Kazakhstan’s resilience in global markets.

What Does This All Mean?

Kazakhstan is entering a new investment phase.

Oil and gas are no longer a guaranteed magnet for capital.

Regions are gaining breathing space, but a new growth engine is urgently needed.

It could be:

• Manufacturing

• Green and digital projects

• Agriculture and food production

• Infrastructure development

The key is not just to spend money, but to invest wisely — aiming for scale and meaningful returns.

Only then will investments become more than just numbers in reports; they will form the real foundation for future growth.

By Yernar Serik, author of the Telegram channel Tradereport.kz 

and consultant at the National Bureau of Economic Research,

exclusively for www.economyKZ.org.