A few years ago, any discussion about the energy transition started with climate change. Policymakers talked about carbon emissions, companies announced net-zero strategies, and investors looked for ways to reduce climate risks. BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2026 suggests something much bigger is happening today. The main driver of the energy transition is gradually shifting away from climate concerns and toward energy security.
Recent events have made that shift hard to ignore. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains. The war in Ukraine forced Europe to rethink its energy system. More recently, tensions in the Persian Gulf reminded governments how vulnerable fuel supplies can be. Every crisis pointed to the same reality: modern economies remain heavily exposed to external energy shocks. As a result, solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and heat pumps are increasingly seen not just as climate tools, but as ways to reduce dependence on imported fuels and make economies more resilient.
The logic is straightforward. Oil must be extracted, shipped, insured and delivered. Natural gas depends on pipelines, LNG terminals and international trade routes. Any disruption along that chain can trigger price spikes or supply shortages. Solar power works differently. Once a solar farm is installed, electricity is produced locally. Its operation depends far less on geopolitical events or global trade routes. BloombergNEF expects many economies to reduce their reliance on imported energy over the coming decades. This trend could be especially important for Asian countries that still import a large share of their fuel needs.
In many ways, the world is moving from one type of dependence to another. The focus is shifting from fuel imports to technology and equipment. That creates new challenges, but they are very different from the risks associated with oil and gas imports.
At the same time, the energy transition does not mean the end of fossil fuels. One of BloombergNEF’s most important conclusions is that oil and gas are beginning to follow different paths. Electric vehicles are slowing growth in oil demand and are already reducing gasoline consumption in China. According to the report, global oil demand could reach its peak before the end of this decade and gradually decline afterward.
Natural gas tells a different story. Rising electricity demand is giving gas a new role in the global energy system. Even as solar and wind power expand rapidly, economies still need reliable electricity around the clock. That makes gas an important part of the energy mix for many years to come. BloombergNEF even expects gas to overtake oil’s share of global primary energy demand by the mid-2040s. For countries with large and low-cost gas reserves, that means continued strategic importance well into the future.
An unexpected factor is helping drive this trend: artificial intelligence. Data centers are becoming one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand in the world. BloombergNEF estimates that their power consumption will more than triple by 2035, reaching 5.4% of global electricity demand. In some countries and regions, the share will be much higher. The rise of AI, growing computing needs and broader digitalization are creating a new layer of pressure on power systems. As a result, discussions about energy are increasingly focused on grid reliability, power generation and infrastructure rather than climate targets alone.
This is one reason electricity is moving to the center of the global economy. Today, oil products remain the largest source of final energy consumption. BloombergNEF expects electricity to become the world’s dominant source of final energy by 2047. Electric vehicles are spreading rapidly. Heat pumps are becoming more common. Demand for cooling continues to rise. Industries are becoming more electrified. Data centers and AI require ever more power. This is not simply a change in the energy mix. It is a change in the structure of the economy itself.
The economy of the 20th century was built around extracting, transporting and refining hydrocarbons. The economy of the 21st century increasingly depends on generating electricity, storing it efficiently and managing demand across complex power systems. Nowhere is this shift more visible than in solar power and battery storage. BloombergNEF expects solar energy to become the world’s largest source of electricity generation early in the next decade. Just a few years ago, that forecast would have seemed highly ambitious. Falling costs and massive manufacturing capacity have changed the picture dramatically.
Battery storage is following a similar path. BloombergNEF expects global energy storage capacity to grow roughly seventeen-fold by 2050. Batteries are no longer a supporting technology. They are becoming a core part of the energy system. They allow excess solar generation to be stored and used later, helping grids operate more efficiently as renewable energy expands.
Even so, these changes do not solve the climate challenge on their own. BloombergNEF acknowledges that today’s technologies are not enough to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. Electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries continue to scale quickly, but progress in areas such as hydrogen and carbon capture has been slower than many expected. Climate concerns remain important, but they are no longer the only force shaping investment decisions and energy policy.
The report’s main conclusion is both simple and striking. The world is not moving away from fossil fuels solely to reduce emissions. It is redesigning its energy system to reduce exposure to geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and price shocks. In that sense, the energy transition is becoming less of an environmental project and more of an economic resilience project.
That is why competition in the coming decades will not revolve only around oil fields and fuel exports. It will increasingly center on technology, power grids, batteries, data centers and the ability to provide reliable electricity in a world where energy and geopolitics remain deeply connected.
Sati Sultan kyzy, expert at EconomyKZ.org
