In earlier pieces, one uncomfortable idea kept coming up: the old world order is not just under pressure, it is falling apart. We are living through a period of deep turbulence. The one-pole world is gone, international law often feels optional, and many global institutions look more like stage props than real centers of power.
Legitimacy disappears the moment a system stops listening to people and starts pretending everything is fine. But why now? Why, despite all the technology around us, do we feel less secure? The answer is simple and uncomfortable at the same time: it all comes down to capital – how it is distributed and where it flows.
In the 20th century, debates about capital were about ideology. In the 21st century, they became about math. French economist Thomas Piketty turned abstract ideas about fairness into hard data. His book Capital in the Twenty-First Century sparked global debate. His key point is clear: we are back in an era of inherited wealth. When returns on capital grow faster than the economy, wealth does not spread – it concentrates at the top.
As Joseph Stiglitz warns, when capital becomes too powerful, it starts bending institutions around it. On paper, everything still exists – offices, titles, procedures. But real power has already moved elsewhere, to where financial flows are controlled. That is where trust begins to break. When rules are written for a small group, the rest of society stops believing in them. This is how global turbulence starts. Today, this struggle has moved from meeting rooms to the physical map of the world. It plays out along trade routes, energy hubs, and data cables.
Different thinkers have been pointing to this shift for years. Immanuel Wallerstein showed how global systems change over time. Manuel Castells explained that power in a networked world comes from controlling information flows. Samuel Huntington suggested that cultural and civilizational tensions would shape the future.
Modern research supports this view. World Economic Forumnow lists geo-economic conflict as a top global risk. Other institutions highlight a growing crisis of trust. The conclusion is simple: the old system is breaking, and the new one is not ready yet.
Geography as the new ideology: power over flows
When rules stop working, geography takes over. Whoever controls the flow controls the power.mIf global elites cannot agree in conference rooms, they start building reality on the ground. Infrastructure becomes strategy. China understood this early with its Belt and Road initiative. It is an attempt to reduce dependence on sea routes. The United States still dominates key maritime chokepoints. But land corridors are changing the game.
New pressure points are emerging:
- Greenland – melting ice is opening access to critical minerals
- Africa – logistics corridors are becoming zones of competition
- Undersea cables – the hidden backbone of the internet
Today, infrastructure does not reduce inequality – it often amplifies it.
The world is splitting into two groups:
- those who control flows
- those who simply host them
The operating system of the world: how capital has changed
Capital has gone through several stages:
1. Land-based wealth
2. Industrial capital
3. Financial capital
4. Today – process-based capital
In this new phase, ownership matters less than control. Controlling an algorithm can be more powerful than owning a factory. Intangible assets now dominate. Their value is close to 100 trillion dollars. This means one thing: profit comes not from making things, but from controlling processes.
As a result, a new distribution model has emerged:
- operators take most of the value
- transit countries get a small share
In some cases, transit economies keep only 5-7% of total value. Countries like Kazakhstan are key nodes in this system. The real question is whether they remain passive corridors or become active controllers.
Institutional breakdown and three possible scenarios
The current system struggles to fix itself.
There are three core pressures:
- extreme concentration of wealth
- dominance of intangible capital
- rising geo-economic conflict
From this, three scenarios emerge:
1. Major Collapse
The system breaks under its own weight
2. Fragmentation
The world splits into separate blocs
3. Proactive Sovereignty
Countries build their own systems and control their flows The third path is the hardest, but also the most promising.
The Paradox of change
People rarely choose radical change willingly. Most major reforms happen after crises, not before them. Ideas that once sounded unrealistic often become normal under pressure. That is why the current system is unlikely to reform itself. It changes only when it has no other choice.
The future of capital: what will matter next
The next question is simple: what will capital rely on in the future? We are already seeing early signs. Artificial intelligence is becoming a key factor.
But the real value will likely shift to three scarce resources:
- Human attention – time is limited and cannot be scaled
- Trusted reality – reliable information becomes critical
- Privacy and autonomy – the ability to stay independent from systems
These are limited resources, which makes them valuable.
The world is at a turning point. We can keep pretending the old system still works, or start building a new one. Crisis is not just a threat. It is also a tool for change.
To be continued…
Marat Idrisov, independent expert, specifically for www.economyKZ.org
