Not long ago, the global economy looked almost unstoppable. Millions of containers crossed oceans every year, oil flowed freely to international markets, and semiconductors were manufactured and delivered wherever they were needed. The world appeared large, diversified, and resilient. But recent events have forced investors to look at the map differently. It turns out that a significant share of the global economy depends not on thousands of factories or hundreds of trade routes, but on a handful of locations through which critical flows of energy, raw materials, and technology pass. When one of these hubs faces disruption, the effects quickly spread far beyond the region where the problem began.
This idea sits at the heart of J.P. Morgan’s Mid-Year Outlook 2026. The report argues that the world is entering an era where resilience matters more than efficiency, and where control over key logistics and production hubs is becoming a major source of economic power. The most important question today is no longer how fast the global economy can grow. The more important question is how well it can withstand disruptions at a few critical points.
The report focuses on two locations in particular: the Strait of Hormuz and Taiwan. At first glance, they seem to have little in common. One is tied to oil and gas flows, while the other is linked to semiconductor production. Yet according to J.P. Morgan, these two places pose some of the biggest risks to the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz has long been one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil move through this narrow waterway every day. That is about one-fifth of global oil consumption and nearly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. The same route also handles around 20% of global liquefied natural gas shipments. As long as tankers move freely, few people pay much attention to the strait. But whenever its security comes into question, markets quickly remember how dependent the global economy remains on a single stretch of water.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East in 2026 provided a clear reminder. Following the first strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, oil prices nearly doubled. European LNG prices surged by almost 100% in just two days. For investors, it was another reminder that despite years of discussion about energy diversification, oil and gas remain the foundation of global industry, transportation, and trade.
But energy is only part of the story. The report also highlights Qatar’s role in global supply chains. The country accounts for roughly 30% of the world’s helium production. At first glance, that may seem like a minor detail. Yet helium plays a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing. As a result, an energy disruption can gradually become a technology disruption. Problems in energy markets can affect chip production, which in turn can affect countless industries that rely on advanced electronics. This is how local disruptions turn into global problems.
Even so, J.P. Morgan does not see the Strait of Hormuz as the most dangerous chokepoint in the global economy. A much larger risk lies in Taiwan.
Today, TSMC produces more than 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. This is not simply a large technology company. It is a cornerstone of the modern digital economy. Data centers, artificial intelligence systems, cloud computing platforms, smartphones, automobiles, and advanced defense technologies all rely on chips produced there. As computing power becomes more important, dependence on Taiwan grows with it.
The paradox is that Taiwan itself is highly vulnerable. Around 90% of its energy is imported, and more than 60% of its food comes from abroad. In other words, one of the world’s most important manufacturing hubs depends heavily on external supplies. That is why any discussion about a potential blockade of Taiwan attracts so much attention from economists and investors.
The report outlines the potential consequences of a disruption to Taiwan’s operations. Some estimates suggest that a blockade could reduce global economic growth by around 5%. For the United States, the impact could be comparable to a major financial crisis. For China, the damage could be even greater.
The reason is straightforward. If the economy of the twentieth century was built around oil, the economy of the twenty-first century is increasingly built around semiconductors. Without access to advanced chips, industries ranging from automobile manufacturing to artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, telecommunications, and defense systems would face serious challenges. A large share of the world’s technological progress now depends on a small number of factories located on a single island.
What makes this risk even more significant is that financial markets are not fully pricing it in. Despite growing tensions around Taiwan, investors still view the probability of a major conflict as relatively low. That means any unexpected disruption could trigger a far larger reaction than many currently expect.
The report encourages readers to look beyond these two examples. The Strait of Hormuz and Taiwan are simply the most visible signs of a broader trend. For decades, globalization was built around efficiency. Production moved to wherever costs were lowest. Supply chains were designed to minimize expenses. Countries specialized in specific stages of production. This approach helped fuel global trade and reduce costs across the economy.
At the same time, however, it created a new kind of dependency.
Instead of many independent production centers, the world developed a small number of critical hubs. There are fewer of them than many people realized. The global economy increasingly resembles a vast network supported by a handful of essential connections. As long as those connections remain intact, the system works remarkably well. But when one of them breaks down, the effects ripple across the entire network.
That is why governments around the world are placing greater emphasis on supply chain security, strategic autonomy, and resilience. The United States is working to bring semiconductor production back home. Europe is increasing spending on energy security and defense. China is investing heavily in technological self-sufficiency and greater control over critical resources.
Many observers describe these trends as deglobalization. J.P. Morgan sees them differently. According to the report, the world is not abandoning globalization. Instead, it is redesigning it. Countries are not turning away from international trade. They are trying to reduce the most dangerous dependencies.
The challenge is that resilience comes at a cost. Backup supply chains are more expensive than primary ones. Relocating production requires significant investment. Energy independence demands new infrastructure. All of this increases costs for governments and businesses alike. What once looked like unnecessary spending is increasingly viewed as insurance against future disruptions. As a result, the drive for resilience is becoming one of the forces shaping a new inflationary environment.
This leads to the report’s central conclusion. The world is more interconnected than many believed, but it is also more fragile. When one-fifth of global oil flows through a single waterway and most advanced semiconductors come from a single island, the global economy stops looking like a collection of independent markets. Instead, it becomes a system of chokepoints. And those few locations are playing a growing role in shaping inflation, economic growth, financial markets, and strategic decisions by the world’s largest governments. In an era defined by artificial intelligence, energy transformation, and geopolitical competition, the importance of these chokepoints is only likely to increase. The world may still look global. But its stability increasingly depends on a handful of places that most people will never see on a map.
Alen Serik, expert of the portal EconomyKZ.org
