A national strategy should guide development not just record results. However, many strategic documents include indicators that the government cannot directly influence. In such cases achieving target values often depends on external factors rather than actual government policies. This creates a risk of strategic drift where goals are set, but the mechanisms to achieve them are either missing or contradict the country’s economic realities.
What Makes an Indicator Manageable?
The 2029 National Plan includes 39 national indicators, but not all of them are manageable. To be truly effective, an indicator should meet the following criteria:
1. Government influence – It should be affected by policies in economy, social affairs, taxation, and investment.
2. Objective measurement – It should be based on clear, accessible, and transparent data.
3. Linked to funding and implementation – If an indicator is part of the strategy, specific measures and resources must be allocated to achieve it. Otherwise, it remains just a declaration.
Food Spending Share: A Manageable Indicator?
One of the key indicators is “Share of Food Expenses”, with a target of 40% by 2029. However, real trends show the opposite direction:
• 2015: 44.7%
• 2023: 51.3%
• Q3 2024: 50% (average for the first three quarters – 50.5%)
To meet the target the share of food expenses needs to drop by 10 percentage points in just four years. However, there are major regional differences:
• Highest levels – Almaty and Zhambyl regions: 59.6% and 59.9% (Q3 2024)
• Lowest levels – Karaganda region and Astana: 41.3% and 41.8% (Q3 2024)
These variations are linked to income levels, food availability, and regional consumption habits. A one-size-fits-all approach may not work—solutions need to be flexible.
Key Factors Affecting Food Expenses
A fundamental economic principle explaining consumption patterns is Engel’s Law: as income grows, people spend more on food in absolute terms, but food expenses take up a smaller share of the total budget. However, this process depends on several factors:
1. Income levels
If real income grows faster than inflation, people shift spending toward education, healthcare, and leisure.
In Kazakhstan, real income growth in 2023 was only +0.9%, which barely offsets inflation.
2. Food price inflation
If food prices rise faster than wages, people are forced to spend more on food, even if their income grows.
◦ 2022: 25.3%
◦ 2023: 8.5%
◦ Q3 2024: 5.5%
3. Changing consumer habits
Increased spending on organic and imported products, as well as shifting diets toward healthier or premium food, also affects food expenses as a share of the budget.
Is This Indicator Manageable?
Food inflation is influenced by global prices, supply chains, and weather conditions, making it partially manageable. However, the government can still influence it through:
• Raising incomes – increasing wages, developing non-resource sectors.
• Price control measures – reducing tax burdens on food, supporting domestic production.
• Boosting the agricultural sector – investing in farming, logistics, and food processing.
Reducing the share of food expenses without increasing real incomes is unrealistic. If the economy does not grow fast enough to boost real incomes beyond inflation, the 40% target by 2029 will remain unreachable.
What Needs to Change?
✅ Focus on manageable factors – Prioritize income growthrather than just price controls.
✅ Adapt policies to regional realities – A one-size-fits-allapproach won’t work.
✅ Diversify the economy – A stronger non-resource sectorwill shift spending toward education, healthcare, and leisure.
The Big Question
Are we ready to rethink strategic planning so that indicators reflect real, manageable processes rather than just setting optimistic targets?
