The draft of Kazakhstan’s republican budget for 2025–2027 outlines a significant increase in revenues. In this article we will examine the key sources of tax and non-tax revenues that will contribute to this growth, as well as the risks that could affect their realization.
Forecasts for 2025–2027: General Figures
The revenues of the republican budget (excluding transfers) are projected to amount to 15,633,578,935 thousand tenge in 2025, which is 3,787,745,515 thousand tenge more than the estimate for 2024. In 2026, revenues are expected to reach 16,701,913,878 thousand tenge (an increase of 1,068,334,943 thousand tenge), and in 2027, they are projected to amount to 18,203,978,853 thousand tenge (an increase of 1,502,064,975 thousand tenge).
Major Tax Revenues
- Value Added Tax (VAT):
◦ 2025: 6,510,033,023 thousand tenge (an increase of 1,459,220,985 thousand tenge compared to 2024).
◦ 2026: 6,844,967,089 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 7,474,216,155 thousand tenge.
- Corporate Income Tax (CIT):
◦ 2025: 5,087,546,655 thousand tenge (an increase of 1,809,422,250 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 5,452,940,083 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 6,141,304,414 thousand tenge.
- Excise Taxes on Imported Goods:
◦ 2025: 149,702,349 thousand tenge (an increase of 3,886,233 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 153,968,598 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 157,572,875 thousand tenge.
- Tax on Gambling:
◦ 2025: 16,621,736 thousand tenge (an increase of 1,014,473 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 17,535,931 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 18,412,727 thousand tenge.
- Taxes on International Trade and External Operations:
◦ 2025: 2,305,622,997 thousand tenge (an increase of 276,280,307 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 2,565,061,707 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 2,600,935,603 thousand tenge.
- Customs Duties on Imported Goods:
◦ 2025: 535,684,570 thousand tenge (an increase of 37,652,086 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 560,567,302 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 575,753,711 thousand tenge.
- Customs Duties on Exported Goods:
◦ 2025: 1,690,423,881 thousand tenge (an increase of 234,449,332 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 1,921,721,213 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 1,939,360,672 thousand tenge.
- Revenues from Taxes on International Trade and Operations:
◦ 2025: 79,514,546 thousand tenge (an increase of 4,178,889 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 82,773,192 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 85,821,220 thousand tenge.
- State Duty:
◦ 2025: 4,355,515 thousand tenge (an increase of 203,680 thousand tenge).
◦ 2026: 4,573,291 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 4,801,955 thousand tenge.
Main Non-Tax Revenues
- Dividends on State-Owned Shares:
◦ 2025: 231,168,083 thousand tenge (a decrease of 623,437,233 thousand tenge compared to 2024).
◦ 2026: 215,737,847 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 234,954,954 thousand tenge.
- Income from Property Leasing:
◦ 2025: 65,347,382 thousand tenge (including lease payments for the use of the Baikonur complex).
◦ 2026: 65,378,702 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 65,409,772 thousand tenge.
- Income from the Sale of Goods and Services by State Institutions:
◦ 2025: 6,393,334 thousand tenge.
◦ 2026: 6,405,869 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 6,411,880 thousand tenge.
- Other Revenues from Republican Property:
◦ 2025: 13,767,771 thousand tenge (including income from the sale of confiscated property and compensation for losses in agriculture and forestry).
◦ 2026: 14,580,998 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 15,023,024 thousand tenge.
- Revenue from the Sale of Fixed Assets:
◦ 2025: 5,200,000 thousand tenge.
◦ 2026: 200,000 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 200,000 thousand tenge.
- Interest Income from Placing Budget Funds in Bank Accounts:
◦ 2025: 4,558,200 thousand tenge.
◦ 2026: 4,808,901 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 4,929,124 thousand tenge.
- Revenue from Fines and Penalties:
◦ 2025: 1,970,740 thousand tenge (a decrease of 20,633,273 thousand tenge compared to 2024).
◦ 2026: 2,079,130 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 2,131,108 thousand tenge.
- Other Non-Tax Revenues:
◦ 2025: 81,407,459 thousand tenge.
◦ 2026: 85,895,546 thousand tenge.
◦ 2027: 88,006,888 thousand tenge.
Conclusion
Kazakhstan’s 2025–2027 budget plan demonstrates ambitious goals for increasing revenues through tax and non-tax collections. The main sources of revenue include value-added tax, corporate income tax, excise taxes, and income from leasing and dividends. At the same time, economic risks such as a reduction in the export duty on oil require careful attention and control. The success of implementing this plan will largely depend on the effective management of macroeconomic processes and the strengthening of tax administration.
Prepared by: Lina Egel kyzy, expert at Economy.kz portal
