In agriculture the level of processing isn’t just a statistic. It’s a sign of how developed the economy is, how secure the food system is, and how strong the country’s planning is. If a country produces raw food but doesn’t process it, it loses out—on added value, on control over markets, and ultimately, on food security.
Kazakhstan has made food processing a top priority in recent years. The national development plan sets an ambitious target: by 2026 70% of key agricultural products—like milk, meat, oilseeds, rice, corn, and buckwheat—should be processed within the country.
Among these, milk processing plays a crucial role in generating value. One of the best examples is the production of cheese and cottage cheese.
Even though cheese and cottage cheese are processed foods, they are considered low in technological complexity on the global Product Complexity Index (PCI). With a PCI score of -0.0526, these products are easy to make using widely available, standard technologies. They don’t require specialized knowledge or advanced tech, and they’re not tightly connected to high-tech industries.
Still, milk processing is essential—not because it’s high-tech, but because it helps meet domestic demand and strengthens food independence.
The Dairy Paradox: More Production, But Still Not Enough
In the last 20 years Kazakhstan has increased its cheese and cottage cheese production 3.4 times—from 13 000 tons in 2004 to 43 800 tons in 2023. But during the same period, domestic consumption grew 5.6 times—from 17 200 tons to 96 000 tons. That means local production couldn’t keep up with demand. As a result, the share of domestic products in total consumption dropped from 76% to 46%.
At the same time, imports grew dramatically. Kazakhstan now depends heavily on imported cheese, mostly from Russia (43.5%) and Belarus (29.3%). Kyrgyzstan is also a strong competitor with cheaper products. This creates serious price competition for local producers.
The government had aimed for 59% self-sufficiency in 2023, but didn’t reach it. By law, food independence is only considered achieved if a country meets at least 80% of its own needs with local production. The goal now is to reach 80% by 2027 and full self-sufficiency—100%—by 2030. Getting there will require more than just boosting processing. Kazakhstan needs to speed up investment projects and improve state support programs to make them more targeted and effective.
By 2025 the government plans to complete 20 new dairy processing projects. Five of them will focus on cheese and cottage cheese, with a total capacity of 161 200 tons per year. There are also subsidies for farmers who supply milk for processing and support for processors purchasing raw milk for advanced production.
Still, a key question remains: are these efforts enough to truly boost self-sufficiency? While investment and subsidies help, the industry remains fragile. There are weak links between raw material suppliers, processors, and sellers. Market conditions are unstable. That’s why Kazakhstan needs to rethink its support strategy: shift from quantity to quality, from scale to sustainability, from cash subsidies to long-term partnerships between farmers and processors.
Reaching 100% self-sufficiency in cheese and cottage cheese isn’t just a number—it’s a test of Kazakhstan’s ability to build a balanced and resilient food system. This can only be done with a focused, step-by-step approach.
With limited public funds, the country must prioritize:
• Supporting local processors through government procurement and promotion of local products
• Making local processing more profitable than importing finished goods
• Providing targeted incentives to increase product variety and deepen processing
Kazakhstan’s processing sector has great potential—but also serious challenges. On one hand, demand is strong and growing, national goals are clear, and infrastructure is in place. On the other hand, processors often struggle to reach customers due to weak logistics and unstable markets. Implementation of strategies is often delayed. Imported goods remain cheaper and more consistent in supply.
All these factors—both strengths and weaknesses—must be considered when designing government support policies.
Kazakhstan can reach its food security goals, but only by changing the way it supports the dairy sector. The focus should be on resilience over size, outcomes over numbers. With a limited budget, the country must build an economic model that follows a clear logic—from demand to production.
It is crucial that all government and investment efforts align under a single strategy. This will help eliminate fragmentation and create a strong, reliable supply chain—from raw milk to finished dairy products on the shelf.