Forget oil and uranium for a moment. Look at what Kazakhstan actually sells abroad as finished goods, and the picture is unexpectedly dynamic.
In the first four months of 2026, the country exported $1.14 billion worth of finished products. On a full-year basis, exports exceeded $3.5 billion for the first time in 2025. By comparison, the figure for the first four months of 2015 was just $252.6 million. That is almost a 4.5-fold increase in a decade, excluding crude oil and metals and counting only goods processed in Kazakhstan.
There is an important caveat. These figures cover finished goods only. Re-exports and products not physically manufactured in Kazakhstan, such as aircraft, smartphones and computers, have been removed from the data. In other words, the numbers below reflect what the country actually produces rather than simply resells.
The structure remains heavily skewed. Food and food products dominate, accounting for 37% of the total, or $425 million in four months. Chemicals come a distant second at $151 million, or 13%, followed by tobacco at $91 million, or 8%.
Look more closely at the leading products and the list resembles the shelves of an ordinary supermarket: $78 million worth of sunflower oil, $64 million of cigarettes, $51 million of mineral water and soft drinks, more than $80 million of perfumes and cosmetics, as well as ice cream, sugar and shampoo.
Kazakhstan’s non-commodity exports are still driven mainly by fast-moving consumer goods rather than advanced industrial production. One product, however, has appeared almost out of nowhere: tobacco-heating devices and vapes. In 2023, exports were worth a negligible $2,500. In the first four months of this year, they reached $22.5 million. That is growth of several thousand times in just a couple of years.
The geography is even more revealing, and the figures tell a broader political story. In 2015, Russia accounted for about 25% of Kazakhstan’s finished-goods exports, a fairly normal share for a large neighbouring market. The figure then rose gradually, reaching 36% in 2022. In 2023, however, it jumped sharply to 63%. Almost two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s finished-goods exports suddenly went to Russia.
The timing is difficult to separate from the geopolitical circumstances surrounding Russia and the surge in parallel imports, even after obvious re-exports have been stripped from the data. Since then, Russia’s share has steadily declined: to 55% in 2024, 46% in 2025 and 37% today. The distortion is gradually fading, and the market is returning to a more natural structure.
Uzbekistan is quickly filling the gap. In just two years, its purchases almost doubled, from $128 million to $231 million, giving it a 20% share. Exports to Kyrgyzstan have risen to $150 million, while Tajikistan and Belarus are also growing steadily. Shipments to Afghanistan have quadrupled in two years.
Still, Kazakhstan should be honest with itself. The five largest buyers – Russia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus – account for almost 75% of all finished-goods exports. All are part of Kazakhstan’s immediate economic perimeter, connected through a shared border, the Eurasian Economic Union or long-established logistics routes.
Beyond that circle, the picture changes sharply. Exports to countries such as Germany, France, Italy, the US and India amount to only a few million dollars, or at best a few tens of millions a year. They are often one-off contracts in narrow niches, such as transformers, jewellery or individual textile shipments, rather than systematic and recurring trade.
Kazakhstan’s finished products are therefore competitive mainly where geographical proximity, established supply chains or a low-cost advantage matter. They are far less established in distant markets, where companies must compete for shelf space against stronger global brands.
That is the real challenge for export policy. Increasing sales to neighbouring countries is relatively straightforward. Turning occasional niche shipments to distant markets into stable and scalable export channels is much harder.
So the next time someone says Kazakhstan lives on oil alone, the answer is more nuanced. The country is steadily expanding its non-commodity exports year after year. But the growth is being driven not by the factories of the future, but by cooking oil, cigarettes and cosmetics, sold mainly to neighbouring markets.
What surprised you most: the rise of vape exports, the temporary surge in Russia’s share, or Kazakhstan’s dependence on its immediate neighbours?
Yernar Serik, National Bureau of Economic Research, Author of the Tradereport Telegram channel. Written exclusively for www.economyKZ.org
