Starting in 2026, government agencies moved to new development plans built around the updated Budget Code. The core idea is simple – decomposition. National targets under the 2029 National Plan are now broken down into clear, concrete tasks for regions and ministries. From now on, every regional administration must show how its projects contribute to national goals.
A key change – investment plans are now mandatory. Targets, measures, and projects are combined into one document. Priority and problem area maps have been added. Transparency has clearly improved. This is a real step forward compared to the old system, where strategic indicators and investment projects often existed side by side, but not truly connected.
The Abay region case
Let’s look at one specific indicator. The region’s development plan sets a target to increase processed industrial exports to $657.6 million by 2029. To reach this goal, projects worth KZT 809.7 billion are planned, financed from external sources:
- construction of a sunflower oil refining plant
- launch of a Puke-Pak packaging line in Semey
- creation of a vehicle assembly site
- construction of a copper smelter in the Ayagoz district
- a meat processing complex in the Zhanasemey district
- production of oil and meat products in the Zharma district
An important plus – the focus on external financing. This reduces direct pressure on the public budget and shows that regions are trying to attract private capital.
In total, KZT 5.1 trillion is allocated for the region’s five-year development plan. Of this amount:
67% or KZT 3.4 trillion – private investment
17% or KZT 906 billion – local budget
12% or KZT 628 billion – national budget
In practice, this creates a two-track model.
Track one – private capital. It goes into industry, processing, and export production. These projects are expected to generate value added, jobs, and tax revenue.
Track two – public funds. These are focused on infrastructure and support: roads, utilities, irrigation systems, social facilities, modernization of public services, and subsidy mechanisms.
The plan also includes public projects such as reconstruction of Semey and Urzhar airports, restoration of irrigation canals, modernization of heating and water systems, construction of schools, colleges, and healthcare facilities, 39 cultural sites and 41 sports facilities, as well as roads, bridges, riverbank protection and flood control dams.
The new planning system shows a shift toward a more structured and financially transparent model. National indicators are now tied to specific projects and funding sources. The two-track structure is clear – private capital is aimed at economic growth, while public money builds the infrastructure base. But a well-designed document does not automatically deliver economic results.
The key question is whether private investments will actually materialize and whether they will truly move the needle on export and growth targets. The real test of this model is its ability to turn strategic logic into steady growth, exports, and value added. Implementation will decide whether this architecture becomes a real development tool – or remains a well-written planning system on paper.
We will continue to analyze regional and district development plans, assess their investment logic, financial backing, and impact on national indicators, and publish our findings on a regular basis.
National Bureau of Economic Research specifically for EconomyKZ.org
