EC[ON]OMY

Inflation in Kazakhstan: A Deceptive Slowdown or the Calm Before the Storm?

In August 2024 the inflation in Kazakhstan slightly slowed down reaching 8.4% (compared to 8.6% in July).

At first glance, these figures may seem encouraging, but a deeper look into the dynamics of price growth across various goods and services reveals a much more alarming picture.

Services on the Rise

Over the past year there has been a significant increase in the cost of paid services. Prices for housing and utilities have surged by 15.3%, contributing a substantial 2 percentage points to the annual inflation rate. Specifically, central heating tariffs rose by 33%, and electricity costs increased by 22.8%. This reflects growing pressure on household budgets, especially in anticipation of the heating season.

Additionally, it is worth noting the 12.4% increase in rental housing costs, which added 0.4 percentage points to inflation. This is particularly noticeable amid the rising demand for rental properties in major cities.

Food and Goods: Mixed Dynamics

Food prices have increased by 5.5%, but this figure hides significant fluctuations within the category. For example, the price of tomatoes jumped by 24.9%, and cucumbers by 21.6%. At the same time, prices for key items like buckwheat and sunflower oil decreased by 23.4% and 17.2%, respectively.

Non-food items also saw a price increase of 7.7%. New domestically assembled passenger cars stand out in this segment with prices rising by 28.6%, thereby indicating steady demand despite overall price increases.

Regional Differences: From Astana to Mangystau

The highest inflation rate was recorded in Astana at 10.5%, exceeding the national average. High inflation rates were also observed in the Mangystau region (10.2%) and Pavlodar region (9.6%). This indicates the presence of regional imbalances in the economy, where certain regions face greater challenges related to rising prices for goods and services.

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