Improving Kazakhstan’s Economic Complexity: A Path Forward

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), developed by Harvard’s Growth Lab, doesn’t just measure how much a country exports—it shows how complex and knowledge-intensive those exports are. In other words, it reflects how much technological capability and industrial diversity a country possesses.

Unlike GDP, which tells us how much a country produces, the ECI tells us how sophisticated its products are. That makes it a useful predictor of long-term economic potential.

As of 2023 Kazakhstan ranks 89th in the ECI with a score of -0.44. In 2022 it was 84th (-0.38), and in 2021, 80th (-0.39). Despite a 10-year improvement of 19 positions, Kazakhstan lost 9 places in just the past year.

Meanwhile, neighboring countries are moving ahead. Uzbekistan now ranks 70th (-0.23), and Kyrgyzstan sits at 58th (0.09). Kazakhstan has fallen behind not only global leaders but also its regional peers, placing between Chile and Georgia.

This decline isn’t just about rankings—it signals that other countries are making faster progress toward a more complex and resilient industrial base.

Uzbekistan rose 13 spots in a single year; Kyrgyzstan climbed 8. These are signs of structural change. Both countries are exporting a broader and more sophisticated mix of products.

Uzbekistan added 68 new products worth $2.14 billion, which now make up 8% of its total exports. Kyrgyzstan added 24 new products worth $240 million, or 6% of its exports. Kazakhstan added just 18 new products worth $1.23 billion—only 1% of its total exports.

According to Harvard’s methodology, a “new” product is one that the country didn’t export 15 years ago, and which now has a complexity score above 1.0 for at least three consecutive years.

That makes new products a signal of innovation and capability-building. Kazakhstan’s low share of new products suggests that it’s relying heavily on traditional, low-complexity sectors like raw materials.

A country’s complexity is directly tied to how it builds and uses knowledge. That includes not just education, but the institutional environment—whether there’s demand for innovation, support for R&D, and a business climate that rewards complex production.

Uzbekistan is showing that reforms can make a difference, even with limited resources. Kyrgyzstan’s progress reflects its push for new industrial partnerships and specialization.

A high GDP doesn’t guarantee long-term strength if it depends on raw materials. The ECI is about tomorrow’s economy—whether a country can grow, adapt, and compete globally.

Kazakhstan’s decline in the index is more than a statistical drop. It’s a warning sign that the country may be missing out on future opportunities.

What Can Kazakhstan Do to Improve?

1. Diversify exports — invest in manufacturing, high-value agriculture, and tech.

2. Support R&D — offer tax breaks and subsidies for innovation.

3. Back new exporters — especially those developing novel and complex products.

4. Build human capital — prioritize technical and applied sciences.

5. Strengthen institutions — simplify regulations, reduce corruption, and ensure policy stability.

The Economic Complexity Index is like a mirror. Right now, Kazakhstan sees a reflection of its past—reliance on raw exports. But if it wants to move forward, it must learn to make, not just mine.

Bayan Abdrakhmanova, National Bureau of Economic Research, specifically for www.economyKZ.org