As the most developed economy in Central Asia, oil-rich Kazakhstan leads the region in purchasing power and plays a key role in business and logistics, thereby connecting continental
China and Europe. According to the official statistical data, it can be assumed that the hydrocarbon sector will continue to stimulate Kazakhstan’s economic growth, showing moderate acceleration in the coming years. However, high inflation, rising interest rates, and the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are likely to destabilize Central Asia, which may negatively affect Kazakhstan’s economic prospects. The high level of economic ties and proximity to Russia, as well as the slow growth rates of major regional partners, create significant risks and challenges for the country. According to the IMF forecast (as of January 2024), Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow at 5.7% in 2025.
Kazakhstan has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) since November 30, 2015, and is one of the founders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It has adopted the EAEU’s common external economic policies and measures. The EAEU applies trade protection measures, including anti-dumping, countervailing, and safeguard measures, to eliminate the negative consequences caused by the import of goods from other countries for the block’s producers. By the end of 2023, the EAEU had implemented 25 trade protection measures, mainly in the form of anti-dumping duties on goods originating from Ukraine, mainland China, Malaysia, India, the EU, and Azerbaijan. The EAEU has concluded a separate agreement on export duties, where each member state establishes its own list of goods that may be subject to export duties and sends it to the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC).
According to statistical data for January-May, 2024 the volume of foreign trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to $55.3 billion, which is 2.16% less than the level in the same period of 2023.
In the first five months of 2024 Kazakhstan exported 63.1 million tons of products to the outside world worth $32.5 billion. This figure represents an increase in physical and cost volumes of 1.57% and 1.87% respectively compared to the same period in 2023. Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world. This Central Asian country borders Russia to the south. The most valuable export goods from Kazakhstan remain raw materials (e.g., oil, unprocessed gold, refined copper, unprocessed alloys, etc.).
For the period mentioned above, this commodity group accounted for about two-thirds (67.8%, i.e., $22.02 billion) of the total cost volume of the country’s export sales. In terms of physical volumes of exports, this indicator is even more significant and amounts to 87.4% (55.2 million tons). The smallest share in Kazakhstan’s exports is occupied by the commodity group of finished products – 6.6% ($2.1 billion) in the cost volume of deliveries and 1% (625.8 thousand tons) – in physical.
The latest country data shows that more than half (67.5%) of the products exported from Kazakhstan were purchased by importers from the following countries:
- Italy (23.6% of the total cost volume of Kazakhstan’s exports or $7.7 billion),
- China (17.7%, $5.8 billion),
- Russia (10.4%, $3.4 billion),
- the Netherlands (5.8%, $1.9 billion),
- Turkey (4.0%, $1.3 billion),
- Uzbekistan (3.4%, $1.1 billion),
- South Korea (2.6%, $836.9 million).
From a continental perspective, 49.8% ($16.2 billion) of Kazakhstan’s export value was delivered to buyers in European countries, while 29.6% ($9.6 billion) was sold to Asian importers. The share of CIS countries in the volume of deliveries of Kazakh products by value was 17.7% ($5.7 billion).
For the period from January to May, 2024 Kazakhstan achieved a trade surplus (i.e., so-called net trade balance, which is determined by calculating the difference between the cost of the country’s total exports and the cost of its total imports) of $9.6 billion, which is 33.4% more compared to $7.2 billion in the same period of 2023. Kazakhstan has significant positive net export balances in international trade of raw materials – $20.5 billion. In turn, these cash flows testify to the still resource-oriented orientation of Kazakhstan’s exports.
From January to May, 2024 Kazakhstan’s imports amounted to 15.96 million tons worth $22.9 billion. Compared to the same period in 2023, physical volumes of supplies from the outside world to Kazakhstan grew by 13.7%, while cost volumes of imports, on the contrary, show a negative dynamic, decreasing by 7.4%.
Opposite to export deliveries a significant share in Kazakhstan’s imports belongs to finished products – 61.3%, i.e., $14.0 billion. In terms of physical volumes of imported goods, this indicator is less impressive and amounts to 39.3% (6.3 million tons). Comparing the cost and physical volumes of imports in terms of commodity groups, it is interesting to note the situation with the supplies of so-called semi-finished products (intermediate goods) to Kazakhstan: if by cost this commodity group takes second place in the country’s imports – 32.1% ($7.3 billion), in physical volumes it prevails over the aforementioned supplies of finished products, taking 40% (6.4 million tons).
Just over half (52.6%) of all imports that came to Kazakhstan were exported by the country’s historically established main trading partners, namely China (24.8% of the total cost of Kazakhstan’s imports or $5.7 billion) and Russia (27.8%; $6.4 billion). Here, it is worth noting an interesting fact: in terms of physical volumes of import deliveries, Russia leads with a share of 73.9% (11.8 million tons). In the regional cut, the main supplies by cost are brought to Kazakhstan from Asia (39.0%; $8.9 billion) and neighboring CIS countries (33.2%; $7.6 billion) were sold to Asian importers.
