At the end of 2024, the global cocoa market entered an unprecedented crisis. In December, cocoa futures reached a historic high of around $12,000 per ton, rising 2.8 times in just one year. For comparison, the total price increase between 2020 and 2023 was less than half of that. The main reason is a sharp drop in cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for nearly 70 percent of global supply.
The impact of this cocoa crisis quickly moved beyond commodity exchanges and became visible to everyday consumers around the world.
Today, the crisis affects not only prices but the very nature of the product. Large international brands are trying to reduce cocoa content by using alternative ingredients and lab-made substitutes. This creates legal and regulatory problems. In many countries, products with lower cocoa content can no longer be called “chocolate”.
Kazakhstan’s import dependence
Kazakhstan has proven especially vulnerable to the cocoa crisis due to its heavy reliance on imports. In 2024, the country imported chocolate and cocoa-based products worth $371.6 million, while exports amounted to only $94.4 million. This means the market remains largely import-driven, both in raw materials and finished products.
Against this background, chocolate prices in Kazakhstan show record growth:
- up 36 percent from January to October 2025 compared to October 2024
- prices have been rising for 78 consecutive months, an unprecedented period for a food product
The most telling example is the price of the 100 g “Kazakhstan” chocolate bar, long seen as a national gastronomic symbol:
- 2020 – 370 tenge
- 2021 – 420 tenge
- 2022 – 480 tenge
- 2023 – 600 tenge
- 2024 – 720 tenge
- 2025 – 1,069 tenge
In practical terms, the price has almost tripled in five years, shifting the product from everyday consumption into a conditional “premium” category.
It is also important to note that chocolate and confectionery production in Kazakhstan has been declining for the second year in a row:
- January to October 2025: -2.9%
- a year earlier, the decline was -14.8%
The share of domestic factories in meeting internal demand fell from 43 percent to 39 percent, while imports in physical terms grew by 12.8 percent. This means higher prices are not accompanied by higher local value added. More consumer money is flowing abroad.
What can be done
The cocoa crisis can become a moment to rethink the national product lineup and explore alternatives. Develop traditional products. Foods like zhent, kurt, talkan and other grain- and milk-based products do not depend on imported raw materials. They carry cultural value and can be reimagined in a modern format through better packaging, portioning and export-oriented design.
Build a new “sweet identity.” Instead of trying to copy chocolate, Kazakhstan can develop its own dessert category based on local ingredients such as grains, honey, dried fruits and dairy products. Support local producers. Government and quasi-government programs should focus not on subsidizing imported raw materials, but on stimulating processing of local products with high value added.
Shift toward exports. Traditional products, if properly packaged and branded, can become export goods that are not tied to global raw material crises.
Yerlan Karimov, independent expert, specifically for www.economyKZ.org
