The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of its quarterly survey of real-sector enterprises for the second quarter of 2026. The survey covered 3,507 companies, 15 more than in the first quarter. It spans a broad range of indicators, from demand and prices to balance-sheet structure and assessments of companies’ financial health, and broadly depicts an economy that has moved out of stagnation but continues to face uneven and often divergent trends.
The composite leading indicator, which aggregates the survey results and typically leads real GDP dynamics by one to two quarters, stood at 99.9 in the second quarter, effectively at the neutral level of 100. A slight decline in capacity utilization and the persistently high tax burden weighed on the indicator, while stronger credit activity, improved corporate profitability and lower overdue receivables provided support. A marginal improvement is expected in the third quarter, with the indicator based on companies’ expectations rising to 100.1.
Demand for finished goods returned to growth in the second quarter, with the diffusion index reaching 50.3 after falling below 50 in the first quarter. Conditions improved both in industry (54.6) and services (51.3). Companies expect demand across the economy to continue growing in the third quarter, with the index rising to 51.9. At the same time, businesses expect growth to moderate slightly in industry and services, to 54.2 and 50.5 respectively.
Price growth for both finished goods and raw materials continued to slow in the second quarter. The finished-goods price index fell to 58.4 from 60.5 a quarter earlier, while the index for raw materials declined to 71.2 from 73.4. Companies expect a further slowdown in the third quarter, to 55.9 and 65.7 respectively. When setting prices for their own products, businesses primarily look at raw-material costs, cited by 77.5% of respondents, and demand, cited by 75.2%. These are followed by taxes and fees (67.9%), labor costs (65.5%), fuel prices (56.5%) and the exchange rate (55.2%).
Capacity utilization edged below its first-quarter level, with the weighted average falling to 51.1%, also below the five-year average of 53.2%. At the same time, output of finished goods, works and services increased in the second quarter, with the index reaching 50.2. Companies expect further growth in the third quarter, to 51.7.
Within real-sector companies’ balance sheets, the share of short-term assets increased to 39.6% from 37.7% a quarter earlier, while the share of long-term assets declined accordingly to 60.4%. Total asset turnover rose to 20.6%, while current asset turnover increased to 39.5%. Within short-term assets, the share of receivables rose to 36.9% from 35.2%, while inventories declined to 19.9% from 21.9%. On the liabilities side, the share of equity fell to 45.3% from 47.6%, while both short- and long-term liabilities increased, to 29.8% and 24.9% respectively. The share of companies with overdue payables edged up to 20.4%, while those with overdue bank loans increased to 4.1%. The share of companies with overdue receivables, meanwhile, declined slightly to 24.4%.
Corporate investment activity continues to rely primarily on companies’ own funds: 69.5% of businesses financed fixed assets from their own resources, while 87.1% did so for working capital. The share of companies using bank loans to finance working capital increased to 20.1% from 17.9% a quarter earlier. At the same time, 37.1% of companies did not finance fixed assets at all, while 19.6% reported no financing of working capital. Among sources of working-capital financing, profits accounted for 48.2%, shareholders’ own funds for 38.9%, bank and microfinance loans for 10.7%, drawdowns from previously opened credit lines for 9.4%, and government programs for 4.5%.
The tax burden remains the single biggest obstacle to doing business, cited by 37.2% of companies, down from 38.3% a quarter earlier. Market competition ranked second at 33.9%. This was followed by finding customers and demand for products (28.1%), shortages of skilled workers (27.0%), the complexity and frequent changes in licensing and permitting procedures (21.8%), difficulties collecting receivables (16.9%), inadequate infrastructure (14.9%), and access to finance, which ranked only eighth in importance at 14.6%. At the same time, 26.9% of companies reported no significant obstacles.
Median return on sales increased to 24.6% across the economy from 23.0%, to 38.1% from 37.1% in mining, and to 24.5% from 23.6% in manufacturing. Looking ahead to the full year, 43.6% of companies expect to finish with a profit, 9.7% anticipate a loss, 13.5% expect to break even, while 33.1% are still unable to make an assessment.
According to discriminant analysis of financial indicators, the share of companies in critical financial condition declined to 27.8% in the second quarter from 28.3% a quarter earlier. The proportion is considerably higher among small businesses (33.8%) than among medium-sized (22.4%) and large companies (15.7%). By sector, the highest shares of financially distressed companies were recorded in real estate activities (36.1%) and trade (33.8%). In water supply, by contrast, the vast majority of companies (77.5%) were in normal financial condition, while agriculture had the highest share of financially stable companies at 34.1%.
The banking system’s role in the real sector strengthened somewhat in the second quarter. The share of companies applying for credit rose to 21.8% from 19.0%, and 94.5% of applicants received financing. Loan rejections accounted for just 1.2% of all companies surveyed. The average interest rate on tenge-denominated loans increased to 18.0% from 17.7% a quarter earlier, while the rate on foreign-currency loans declined to 5.1% from 5.3%. Businesses themselves consider 8.6% an acceptable rate for tenge loans and 3.6% for foreign-currency borrowing, well below the actual rates they pay. The weighted average debt burden rose to 16.6%, although 48.2% of surveyed companies had no debt on their balance sheets. The overwhelming majority of borrowed funds (81.7%) went towards working capital, while just 1.0% was used for business expansion. Companies reported some improvement in both price and non-price lending conditions, although their overall assessment remains negative.
In foreign trade, 55.2% of surveyed companies did not participate in export or import operations during the quarter, 24.9% were importers, 13.4% engaged in both exports and imports, and 6.5% were exporters only. Mining had the highest share of exporters (17.7%), while trade had the highest share of importers (39.9%). In settlements with foreign partners, exporters most commonly use the US dollar (70.9% of exporters), while importers most frequently use the Russian ruble (76.0% of importers). Companies say changes in the tenge exchange rate against the US dollar and Russian ruble have the greatest negative impact on their business activity, while fluctuations against the yuan and euro are seen as less significant.
Overall, the second-quarter 2026 survey points to a gradual normalization of business activity in Kazakhstan’s real sector: demand and output have returned to growth, price pressures are easing, and the share of companies in critical financial condition has edged lower. At the same time, several structural indicators – a declining share of equity in liabilities, a rising debt burden, the persistent gap between actual borrowing costs and the rates businesses consider acceptable, and the large share of companies unable to forecast their own full-year results – suggest that the recovery remains uneven and its resilience is not yet assured.
This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.
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