EC[ON]OMY

Rural America’s economic transformation: a new growth engine

Rural America – covering more than 70% of the United States and producing over $2 trillion in economic output – is quietly reinventing itself. According to The Promise and Potential of Rural America by the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility(2025), these regions are no longer defined only by farms and small towns. They are becoming a new growth engine powered by innovation, industry, and education.

Nearly 50 million Americans – about one in seven – live in rural areas. They are farmers and engineers, teachers and doctors, entrepreneurs and community builders. The economy is driven by three main sectors: government (18% of employment), manufacturing (13%), and healthcare (11%). What’s changing is not the structure but the speed and direction of transformation – toward technology, specialization, and global connectivity.

McKinsey identifies six archetypes of rural America: agricultural hubs, manufacturing strongholds, resource-rich regions, migration magnets, remote areas, and “Middle America” – diversified economies that blend industry and technology. Each faces different challenges, but all are redefining what “rural” means in the 21st century.

Across the U.S., a quiet industrial revival is underway. More than $1 trillion in new manufacturing investments have been announced, and 63% of them are within 15 miles of rural communities. The “Battery Belt” of the South – home to factories producing batteries, semiconductors, and clean tech components – symbolizes this transformation. These are not the smokestack plants of the past; they are clean, automated, and tech-driven. But they also demand a new kind of workforce.

Education now stands at the center of rural renewal. McKinsey notes that by 2030, the U.S. may face a shortage of over two million skilled manufacturing workers, and most of these jobs do not require a college degree. This creates an enormous opportunity for rural communities – where schools and vocational programs can prepare young people directly for high-paying, future-oriented jobs.

In Arizona, Chandler Unified School District is partnering with Intel and the University of Arizona to launch a semiconductor-focused program that offers hands-on learning. In Texas, Roscoe Collegiate High School helps students earn industry certificates and associate degrees at no cost. In Ohio, officials created a standardized competency model to align education with manufacturing needs. Together, these examples show how education can become the backbone of local economies – and how young people can see opportunity without leaving their hometowns.

Social mobility in rural America is stronger than many expect. Manufacturing regions show higher middle-income growth, while agricultural hubs boast lower poverty, higher employment, and better mental health outcomes. The exceptions are remote regions, where poverty rates reach 20%, labor participation is below 50%, and life expectancy hovers around 75 years. McKinsey argues that these areas need targeted strategies to close the gap – focusing on infrastructure, healthcare, and basic services.

The report outlines three major investment pillars – business, people, and basic needs – along with six actionable strategies. These include supporting local anchor institutions, investing in education and workforce training, and improving living conditions. The case of Independence, Oregon, is highlighted as a success story: the town built an agricultural innovation hub with coworking spaces, startup grants, and partnerships between farmers, universities, and tech firms. In a few years, it became a rural center for ag-tech innovation.

Artificial intelligence plays an unexpected role in this story. McKinsey emphasizes that AI is less of a threat and more of an accelerator in rural America. Jobs like engineering, farming, and mechanical work are hard to automate – and AI helps make them safer and more efficient. Rather than replacing workers, it empowers them. With proper training and adoption, rural communities can leapfrog directly into the digital economy.

Partnerships between schools and industry also make strong business sense. Companies that hire locally trained workers can save up to $30,000 per employee per year, adding up to nearly $20 billion in annual savings nationwide. But beyond numbers, this approach revitalizes communities – creating stable jobs, boosting incomes, and restoring local pride. Families no longer feel the need to leave in search of better futures.

McKinsey’s main message is clear: the moment is now. The money is available, the technology exists, and communities are ready. Success depends on local cooperation – between business, education, and government – not national politics. “Making your own corner better is always the right choice,” the report concludes. Rural America’s transformation shows that prosperity starts from the ground up – through collaboration, education, and shared purpose.

For Kazakhstan, the parallels are obvious. Rural regions make up most of the country’s territory, yet their economic potential remains underused. The American experience suggests a path forward: build regional industrial hubs, connect schools with businesses, invest in technical and digital skills, and use AI to enhance productivity in agriculture and logistics. Public–private partnerships can turn the countryside from a subsidized zone into a growth engine.

Rural America proves that economic renewal doesn’t begin in skyscrapers – it starts in small towns with big ambitions. For Kazakhstan, this is a reminder that the next wave of growth may come not from the capital, but from the heartland.

Alen Serik, expert of the  portal EconomyKZ.org

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