In 2025, Kazakhstan’s domestic trade sector is showing strong acceleration. From January to August, the physical volume index (PVI) of the “Trade” sector rose to 108.9% compared to the same period in 2024, when it was 105.5%. The main driver of this growth is wholesale trade. Its PVI reached 109.8%, while retail trade increased by 6.9% with a PVI of 106.9%. These figures signal rising consumer demand and recovering business activity, especially in industrial and non-food goods.
Wholesale trade remains the dominant segment, accounting for 66.6% of the overall trade sector. In January–August 2025, wholesale turnover reached 29,901.5 billion tenge, up 9.8% year-on-year.
Wholesale structure:
• 81.8% – non-food and industrial goods.
• 18.2% – food products.
Regional concentration:
• Almaty – 35.6%
• Astana – 15%
• Atyrau region – 14.7%
• Karaganda region – 5.9%
This shows the sector’s heavy dependence on a few major economic hubs with strong logistics networks and large corporate clients.
Retail turnover for January–August 2025 totaled 14,805.9 billion tenge, up 6.9% year-on-year.
Sales by retail enterprises grew 6.3%, while individual entrepreneurs (including market vendors) increased turnover by 8.2%.
Ownership structure:
• Private enterprises – 89.2% of total retail turnover (13,205.3 billion tenge).
• Foreign companies – 10.8% (1,600.3 billion tenge).
Product mix:
• Food products – 31.9%
• Non-food products – 68.1%
Food sales grew 6.3%, while non-food sales rose 7.2%.
Regional shares:
• Almaty – 32.4%
• Astana – 13.8%
• Karaganda region – 7.3%
• East Kazakhstan region – 5.6%
As of September 1, 2025, retail inventories stood at 1,588.2 billion tenge – enough to cover 56 days of sales. This indicates stable market supply and readiness to meet growing demand.
Why This Growth Matters for the Economy
• Rising wholesale trade shows that businesses are actively building up stock and strengthening supply chains.
• Steady retail growth reflects stronger consumer confidence and rising domestic demand.
• High share of non-food goods points to shifting household spending patterns toward durable and industrial products.
In 2025, Kazakhstan’s domestic trade sector is expanding across both wholesale and retail segments. This signals broader economic recovery: businesses are ready to invest in inventory, and consumers are ready to spend. However, the heavy concentration of trade in just a few cities like Almaty and Astana could increase regional imbalances – requiring careful policy attention.
Lina Yegil kizi, expert of the portal EconomyKZ.org
